Wall St. Stocks Rally on Philly Fed US Economic Outlook

Wall St. Stocks Rally on Philly Fed US Economic Outlook: The Market Oracle: "Tell me. On what basis did 'analysts' have to predict what the Philly Fed March factory activity headline would be? For that matter, on what basis do 'analysts' have for predicting what weekly initial jobless claims will be.

At the end of each week 'analysts' are sent forms to fill out as to what their forecasts are for economic reports to be released in the next week. For many of these economic reports there is no way to accurately predict the data based on fundamentals - seasonal variation, perhaps, but not underlying economic fundamentals....The chart below shows the behavior of the headline index for the Philly Fed region's factory activity. Notice that the headline was in deep negative territory, but rising, as we entered the 2001 recession. The March reading of the headline, at minus 17.4, is lower than where it was during most months of the last recession. Yes, indeed, the Dow should rally on this because "analysts" had predicted that the headline would be worse than it turned out."