Acclaimed Economist Says Recession Is Over
When will this horrible recession be over? According to one surprising source, it’s over right now. The source is Robert J. Gordon, an acclaimed macroeconomist and professor at Northwestern University. It’s surprising to learn he thinks the recession is over, because he is one of seven members of the elite Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis . These are the people who decide officially, for the record books, when recessions begin and end—usually many months after the fact, when the decision is really obvious. I’m unaware of any previous case in which a member of this Committee has ever stepped forward and declared the end of a recession in real time. Gordon bases his gutsy call on an indicator that he says the Committee never even looks at: claims for unemployment benefits. He’s talking about the so-called “jobless claims” number that is released every Thursday morning before the market opens. Based on detailed data from state agencies, it repor...