Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Significant LT bottom in equity markets?

We are close to, or at, a significant long-term bottom in the equity markets:

Here’s what we are seeing - Investors Intelligence:

• INSIDER ACTIVITY – Buying at a similar rate as at the 2002 bottom.
• NYSE BULLISH % - Breadth in late January traded at levels last seen in 2002-2003.
• BUY/SELL CLIMAXES – First eight weeks of 2008 have seen more selling climaxes than buying climaxes, indicating high accumulation.
• INDUSTRY GROUPS – Our Sector Sum indicator fell in January to its most oversold in over 10 years.
• WALL OF WORRY – Talk of recession, high commodity prices and sub-prime problems have created conditions that favor a long-term reassertion of stock indexes.
• ADVISORS SENTIMENT – Bearish sentiment is close to (but not yet at) levels last shown in October 2002!

comments by Norton: the above may be indicators but we have not seen the results of transparent mark to market of the collaterized derivatives that hidden in the balance sheets of the financial industry or are currently being traded to the FED for safe treasury bills. this will mean the FED will be managing a portfolio of junk on their (the taxpayers) balance sheet for years to come. So, dont hold your breath for a clear turn in the market. it will be volatile and subject to downturns based on unknown further surprises the the financial market and periods when the ARM mortgages are due to be adjusted up for people who can hardly afford their current payment schedule. Watch for another chance to short financials (SKF) and for long term commodities to rain over the continuing US dollar decline and scarce food, water, energy resources.

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