Thursday, April 9, 2020

Watch the US Debt Clock. The REVENUE is Running BACKWARDS! 
Click Here for LIVE Data



Is this Good? What does it Mean to have Revenues running Backwards? Why? 
     Note that Consumer Spending makes up over 70% of the GDP. 
  • This chart is showing the results of having US citizens sheltering in Place.
  •  The fact that consumer debt is at an ALL-TIME HIGH. Consumers are tapped out on too much credit card and mortgage expenses relative to their incomes. 
  • Many US consumers, over 10 million and climbing have lost their jobs as a consequence of protections from the COVID19 virus pandemic.Note as a result of 2008 recession unemployment jumped to 10%. Todays unemployment is expected to jump to 30%!
  • Most "non-essential" retail/service stores are closed.
  • Use of travel in all forms: auto, bus, train, airlines has dropped more than 50%.
  • Many destinations in US and Worldwide that depend on tourist traffic are deserted. Gasoline use and traffic in Maine is down 50%.
  • There will not be a "V" shaped recovery. We do not have enough experience, statistical information about how the COVID19 virus spreads and behaves, to reliably forecast WHEN to reopen for business, rehire employees. 
  • Other compounding ECONOMIC issues:
    • The Federal Reserves actions are a replay of the FAILED formula of 2008,QE or Quantitative Easing which DID NOT WORK. FED said in 2008 that QE was a temporary action. They blew a HUGE asset bubble that showed up in real estate prices and the stock market.  Now they have dropped interest rates to zero for the 1-3 month treasuries with 10 yr treasury yield stuck below 1.0%. Link to St Louis Federal Reserve
    • FED money printing in exponentially bigger than 2008. Their Liabilities after 2008 were up to 4.5Trillion dollars. Now it is known to be approaching 10Trillion.
    • Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has said publically their is NO LIMIT to what they will do to support the US Dollar and the Banking System! 
    • These Debts Monetary spending and the Congressional Budget spending are done in US Dollars. They are PRINTED BY THE FED with NOTHING TO BACK THEM. They are only accepted in commerce because users have faith in the Dollar....that is the only thing that backs them! 
    • What are the Dollars? They are promissory bank notes,"IOUs".
    • Who pays the IOUs? The FED? The Treasury? The Congress? The President? 
      • The PUBLIC! YOU are Obligated to PAY OFF this DEBT!
    • Sounds good, but there is no clear proof that this Modern Monetary Theory or "MMT" actually works because there is no foundation for the value of the US Dollar since 1974 when we cut loose from the anchor of any gold backing for US Dollar. FYI: I follow the counter argument to the MMT which is The Austrian School Of Economic that always ties currencies to a foundation of something accepted as having value such as Gold.  Here is a link to more information about the Mises Institute
    • Enjoy, Norton

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