Bond King Message: Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine,

That's the gloomy outlook Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, delivered to CNBC CNBC Interview Monday April 27 on Monday as the stock market staged a strong rally in the face of what he believes is too much optimism.

"People don't understand the magnitude of... social unease... that's going to happen," Gundlach explained. "We've lost every single job that we created since the bottom in 2009."

With that in mind, he revealed that he just shorted the S&P at 2,863.

Debt Jubilee! Economic Nirvana Or Economic NIGHTMARE? (Revealed)

Watch the US Debt Clock. The REVENUE is Running BACKWARDS! 

Click Here for LIVE Data

Is this Good? What does it Mean to have Revenues running Backwards? Why? 

     Note that Consumer Spending makes up over 70% of the GDP. 

• This chart is showing the results of having US citizens sheltering in Place.
•  The fact that consumer debt is at an ALL-TIME HIGH. Consumers are tapped out on too much credit card and mortgage expenses relative to their incomes. 
• Many US consumers, over 10 million and climbing have lost their jobs as a consequence of protections from the COVID19 virus pandemic.Note as a result of 2008 recession unemployment jumped to 10%. Todays unemployment is expected to jump to 30%!
• Most "non-essential" retail/service stores are closed.
• Use of travel in all forms: auto, bus, train, airlines has dropped more than 50%.
• Many destinations in US and Worldwide that depend on tourist traffic are deserted. Gasoline use and traffic in Maine is down 50%.
• There will not be a "V" shaped recovery. We do not have enough experience, statistical information about how the COVID19 virus spreads and behaves, to reliably forecast WHEN to reopen for business, rehire employees. 
• Other compounding ECONOMIC issues:
• The Federal Reserves actions are a replay of the FAILED formula of 2008,QE or Quantitative Easing which DID NOT WORK. FED said in 2008 that QE was a temporary action. They blew a HUGE asset bubble that showed up in real estate prices and the stock market.  Now they have dropped interest rates to zero for the 1-3 month treasuries with 10 yr treasury yield stuck below 1.0%. Link to St Louis Federal Reserve
  
• FED money printing in exponentially bigger than 2008. Their Liabilities after 2008 were up to 4.5Trillion dollars. Now it is known to be approaching 10Trillion.
• Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has said publically their is NO LIMIT to what they will do to support the US Dollar and the Banking System! 
• These Debts Monetary spending and the Congressional Budget spending are done in US Dollars. They are PRINTED BY THE FED with NOTHING TO BACK THEM. They are only accepted in commerce because users have faith in the Dollar....that is the only thing that backs them! 
• What are the Dollars? They are promissory bank notes,"IOUs".
• Who pays the IOUs? The FED? The Treasury? The Congress? The President? 
• The PUBLIC! YOU are Obligated to PAY OFF this DEBT!
• Sounds good, but there is no clear proof that this Modern Monetary Theory or "MMT" actually works because there is no foundation for the value of the US Dollar since 1974 when we cut loose from the anchor of any gold backing for US Dollar. FYI: I follow the counter argument to the MMT which is The Austrian School Of Economic that always ties currencies to a foundation of something accepted as having value such as Gold.  Here is a link to more information about the Mises Institute
• Enjoy, Norton

Real Conversations: Defending Your Wealth During Global Crisis → McCullo...

What is GDP and How is it Calculated  

GDP Genesis

GDP comes from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Compiling it is a giant, difficult, never-ending task, one the BEA staff takes seriously. From time to time, we hear stories about political interference, but I think that unlikely. Too many people are involved to keep any such efforts secret.

The BEA has a handy, colorful, two-page sheet on its website that explains today’s GDP in big letters. Here is how they define it.

Source: BEA

The U.S. Federal Deficit Is About to Soar

   By Tom Dyson March 28, 2020

"...I used to work for the “repo” (short-term loans) desk at Citigroup. So when I started studying the markets again in 2018 after my two-year sabbatical, it was the first thing I noticed.

“The plumbing beneath the banking system is blocked,” I wrote.

The cause: Enormous amounts of cash the government was soaking up and the inability of the banking system to meet its appetite.

As I warned many times last summer, if they didn’t unblock the money markets things would “start blowing up.”

Things blew up on September 17, 2019 when the interest rate on short-term loans spiked from 2% to 10% in a matter of minutes.

The Fed turned on its printing press and began bailing out the government. It couldn’t let the government collapse financially.

That was the moment I was sure we were about to get inflation...." Further reading...

Comment: It nice to hear from someone with experience on the inside of the FED Monetary system works; that is, Tom Dyson who now works for Bonner and Partners Best, Norton West

Real Estate Market: Will It CRASH? If So, When? (Answered)

George Gammon gives the BEST EXPLANATION for Economics EVER! It is
Fascinating! Enjoy, Norton West
| Real Estate-a Look Ahead | Long-term Real Estate Cycles |

How Far Will Markets Drop? - Mike Maloney's Gold / Silver Market Update

April 2, 2020 US Treasury Bill Yields

~ ~Next up.....Negative Yields, so you will be PAYING the BANKS to hold money in a SAVINGS ACCOUNT: THESE ARE NOT NORMAL OR SUSTAINABLE TIMES!~~Norton West~~

	United States	Yield		Day	Weekly	Monthly	Yearly	Date
	US10YR	0.62	0.01	-0.01%	-0.18%	-0.39%	-1.89%	Apr/02
	US 1M	0.06	0.02	0.02%	0.10%	-1.06%	-2.36%	Apr/02
	US 3M	0.10	0.02	0.02%	0.13%	-0.86%	-2.34%	Apr/02
	US 6M	0.14	0.01	0.01%	0.13%	-0.71%	-2.31%	Apr/02
	US 52W	0.15	0.00	0.00%	0.03%	-0.56%	-2.26%	Apr/02
	US 2Y	0.22	0.02	-0.02%	-0.06%	-0.51%	-2.12%	Apr/02
	US 3Y	0.27	0.01	-0.01%	-0.07%	-0.47%	-2.02%	Apr/02
	US 5Y	0.37	0.00	0.00%	-0.10%	-0.40%	-1.95%	Apr/02
	US 7Y	0.53	0.00	0.00%	-0.15%	-0.38%	-1.88%	Apr/02
	US 20Y	1.22	0.01	0.01%	-0.15%	-0.41%	-1.71%	Apr/02
	US 30Y	1.26	0.03	-0.04%	-0.14%	-0.38%	-1.68%	Apr/02

Click to read more...Trading Economics

Gold Ounce to IMF Special Drawing Rights Chart

This Chart lets you see this pair's currency rate history for up to 10 years! XE uses highly accurate, live rates.
This shows how the value of US Dollar relates to SDR as expressed in US Dollar to Gold(XAU). When it takes more us dollars to pay for an SDR in terms of Gold (AUX); that means the US Dollar is WEAKENING!
My Comment:

A year ago it took about $950 to pay for one SDR in Terms of ozs. of Gold. Today it takes about $1200 of US Dollars to pay for one SDR in Terms of Gold; thus, the value of the US Dollar has dropped in terms of Gold and the SDR World Monetary Currency. This is a trend line for replacement of the US Dollar as the World Reserve Currency by the IMF(INternational Monetary Fund), i,e, the SDR will be the new World Reserve Currency in lieu of the US Petro Dollar. Be prepared.

XE Currency Charts With this convenient tool you can review market history and analyze rate trends for any currency pair. All charts are interactive, use mid-market rates, and are available for up to a 10 year time period. To see a currency chart, select your two currencies, choose a time frame, and click to view. XAU - Gold Ounce XDR - IMF Special Drawing Rights XE Currency Charts: XAU to XDR 31 Mar 2020 23:50 UTC - 1 Apr 2020 23:54 UTC XAU/XDR close:1164.73364 low:1151.91053 high:1169.34931

Transfer from XAU to XDR Set rate alerts for XAU to XDR Get currency updates via email Get a currency data API Need commercial grade rates for your business? The XE Currency Data API easily integrates with your system and has guaranteed data delivery.

160+ global sources Rates for every world currency Accuracy with proprietary rates Choose frequency of updates ORDER XE CURRENCY DATA XAU - Gold Ounce Our currency rankings show that the most popular Gold exchange rate is the XAU to USD rate. The currency code for Ounces is XAU.

More Gold Ounce Info XDR - IMF Special Drawing Rights Our currency rankings show that the most popular International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights exchange rate is the XDR to EUR rate. The currency code for Special Drawing Rights is XDR.

More IMF Special Drawing Rights Info Live Currency Rates Currency Rate EUR / USD 1.09508 ▼ GBP / EUR 1.13051 ▲ USD / JPY 107.304 ▲ GBP / USD 1.23800 ▲ USD / CHF 0.96647 ▼ USD / CAD 1.41611 ▼ EUR / JPY 117.507 ▲ AUD / USD 0.60879 ▼

Central Bank Rates Currency Compare JPY -0.10% CHF -0.75% EUR 0.00% USD 0.00% CAD 0.25% AUD 1.00% NZD 1.00% GBP 0.10%

CLICK to continue reading XE

Dollar Reset: Mimic the IMF(International Monetary Fund) SDR Basket of Currencies

 

Wednesday, April 01, 2020
Currency Unit	Currency amount under Rule O-1	Exchange rate 1	U.S. dollar equivalent	Percent change in exchange rate against U.S. dollar from previous calculation
Chinese yuan	1.0174	7.10370	0.143221	0.075
Euro	0.38671	1.09425	0.423157	-0.055
Japanese yen	11.900	107.58500	0.110610	0.976
U.K. pound	0.085946	1.23800	0.106401	0.158
U.S. dollar	0.58252	1.00000	0.582520
1.365909
U.S.$1.00 = SDR			0.732113 2	-0.081 3
SDR1 = US$			1.365910 4

Click Here for more detailsMore details....SDR Valuation

Footnotes
1.
The exchange rates for the Japanese yen and the Chinese renminbi are expressed in terms of currency units per U.S. dollar; other rates are expressed as U.S. dollars per currency unit. Chinese renminbi refers to the name of the currency, while Chinese yuan refers to the currency unit. 2.
IMF Rule O-2(a) defines the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of the SDR as the reciprocal of the sum of the equivalents in U.S. dollars of the amounts of the currencies in the SDR basket. Under current IMF procedures, each U.S. dollar equivalent is calculated on the basis of the mid-market rates, as provided to the IMF by the Bank of England, based on spot exchange rates observed at around noon London time (see Bank of England website); the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of the SDR is rounded to six significant digits. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the European Central Bank serve as backup providers for these exchange rates.
or further details see Method of Collecting Exchange Rates for the Calculation of the Value of the SDR for the Purposes of Rule O-2(a).

3.
Percent change from previous calculation.
4.
The reciprocal of the value of the U.S dollar in terms of the SDR, rounded to six significant digits.
Related Links
IMF Finances IMF Lending Factsheet Financial Data by Country
Glossary
Disclaimer
The International Monetary Fund makes no warranties, express or implied, regarding these tables or the performance of this site. The IMF shall not be liable for any losses or damages incurred in connection with this site.
Related Resources:
Mike Maloney(Youtube)...
TradersChoice.net by Greg Mannarino, Robinhood of WallStreet
Peter Schiff or Schiff gold
ITM Trading commentary by Lynette Zang

Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index

74 Liberty Street Economics

by Blog Author Daniel Lewis, Karel Mertens, and Jim Stock 3/30/20: After this post was published, we received requests for the underlying WEI data. We are providing that here in a downloadable file. Note that the values differ slightly from those plotted due to a minor methodological adjustment since these charts were created on Friday. Economists are well-practiced at assessing real activity based on familiar aggregate time series, like the unemployment rate, industrial production, or GDP growth. However, these series represent monthly or quarterly averages of economic conditions, and are only available at a considerable lag, after the month or quarter ends. When the economy hits sudden headwinds, like the COVID-19 pandemic, conditions can evolve rapidly. How can we monitor the high-frequency evolution of the economy in “real time”?
To address this challenge, we compute a Weekly Economic Index (WEI) to measure real economic activity at a weekly frequency. Few of the government agency data releases macroeconomists often work with are available at weekly or higher frequency. While financial data, like stock market prices and interest rates, are available at high frequency, we are particularly interested in real activity, not financial conditions. For our purpose, most weekly series come from private sources like industry groups, which collect data for the use of their members, or from commercial polling companies.

The table below details the series we use in our baseline index. These include a measure of same-store retail sales, an index of consumer sentiment, initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims, an index of temporary and contract employment, a measure of steel production, a measure of fuel sales, and a measure of electricity consumption. We transform all series to represent 52-week percentage changes, which also eliminates most seasonality in the data. As the current situation evolves, we may incorporate additional series to refine the index in the coming weeks.
Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: More at The Weekly Economic Index