Friday, May 30, 2008

Upcoming bank crisis is going to be far greater than what happened in the 1980's

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "upcoming bank crisis is going to be far greater than what happened in the 1980's...

So what you say? Well I think as we watch bank after bank (Royal Bank of Scotland(RBS) this morning as an example) take recurring “one-time” write-offs we can begin to see just what a ponzi scheme this has been over the years. Banks book loans, mark them up in value, and show the difference in profits. They've done the same thing with the phantom book value these deals present when consummated. Over the last few decades banks have not really made any money; they have merely been a conduit for the Fed to create massive credit. The U.S. money supply is now over 99% debt...

Looking back at the S&L crisis, I do not recall knowing anyone who was directly affected. This mortgage crisis (credit crisis really) runs far deeper. Ridiculous lending standards compounded by consumer greed and Fed micro-management of interest rates are causing millions of foreclosures.

In the wake, tens of thousands of self-employed real estate agents have not had any income for months on end, the originate to securitize model is dying, and mortgage rates are not dropping in spite of massive rate cuts by the Fed. Unemployment is poised to soar which means still more foreclosures are coming. REOs are piling up on bank books. What was largely an institutional crisis in the 1980's is now a huge consumer crisis as well as a huge institutional crisis..."

No comments: