View from The Ships Crow's Nest >>>>>

Jesse's Café Américain: Volatility Then and Now : "As you may recall, there was a steady ramp higher in stocks at the end of 2009 until about January 19, 2010. There was also a corresponding drop in the VIX volatility index to rather low levels. There was a precipitous sell off in stocks in the latter part of that January as the market corrected from an artificial and highly overbought condition. Beware of artificial complacency for it always masks a fraud...."

How to regain US dominance in Education, innovation and World leadership  by Norton >>>I love this quote from Edward Stiglitz" Stiglitz listed five ingredients to change the comparative advantage that a country has through dynamic economics. It is all about education, openness and innovation, he insisted.... " Openness not globalisation, stresses Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz in Cairo - Economy - Business - Ahram Online : "Stiglitz listed five ingredients to change the comparative advantage that a country has through dynamic economics. It is all about education, openness and innovation, he insisted....

Gold and Silver ETF Holdings Decline As Precious Metals Continue Sideways Price Action :  January 12, 2011 After major upward price movement during the later half of 2010, both the SLV and GLD continue their sideway price action. As gold and silver prices continue to consolidate, gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) and silver holdings in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both declined..." Despite the lack of correlation between gold prices and gold holdings of the GLD, investing in the GLD has produced approximately similar returns to owning bullion, disregarding transaction costs.  The price gain during 2010 was approximately 28% for both gold bullion and the GLD.   For those who choose to avoid holding the physical metal, the GLD was an excellent substitute choice for gold bullion in 2010.

US Banks Reporting Phantom Income on $1.4 Trillion Delinquent Mortgages - Robert Lenzner - StreetTalk - Forbes : "The giant US banks have been bailed out again from huge potential writeoffs by loosey-goosey accounting accepted by the accounting profession and the regulators. They are allowed to accrue interest on non-performing mortgages ” until the actual foreclosure takes place, which on average takes about 16 months..... This means that Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, among hundreds of other smaller institutions, can report interest due them, but not paid, on an estimated $1.4 trillion of face value mortgages on the 7 million homes that are in the process of being foreclosed. "

S&P, Moody's Warn On U.S. Credit Rating - WSJ.com : "By MARK GONGLOFF, MARK BROWN And NATHALIE BOSCHAT With attention focused on sovereign-debt worries in Europe, two major credit-rating firms reminded investors again that the U.S. has debt problems of its own. Investors bought Treasury debt nonetheless, ignoring the comments, which echoed prior statements by the companies and may still be months or years away from having any practical meaning "The warning on the U.S. rating is well-founded," said Brian Yelvington, chief fixed-income strategist at Knight Capital. "However, it will probably fall on deaf ears until the peripheral Europe story plays out." Moody's Investors Service said in a report on Thursday that the U.S. will need to reverse the expansion of its debt if it hopes to keep its "Aaa" rating.... ." Norton's comment: Are you preparing for this?

How We Know the Crisis Has Arrived by End of America video by Porter Stansberry  For us, the moment arrived five years ago. We noticed the dollar collapsing against both gold and the currencies of our trading partners. We could see the problems on the balance sheets of car makers, investment banks, and Freddie and Fannie. We watched, aware of the risks, when investors bid up real estate prices, oil prices, gold prices... almost anything to get out of the dollar.... We would urge you to share these facts (and our " End of America " video presentation) with anyone you care about. Here are the top seven factors we believe MUST lead to the end of the global U.S. dollar standard – what we call The End of America Seven Ways to Know: 1.The price of gold has gone up for 10 years in a row. 2.Our government's deficits are out of control 3.The government cannot increase tax revenues enough to cover our spending or repay our debts – ever. 4.Special-interest groups – partic...

China's economy: Hello America | The Economist : August 16, 2010 "CHINA has become the world's second biggest economy according to data released on Monday August 16th. Japan's economy fell behind China's at market exchange rates in the second quarter (it has been number three in PPP terms for some time). These numbers are not strictly comparable: Japan's data have been seasonally adjusted while those for China have not. Quibbles aside, Japan will surely be eclipsed soon, if it has not been already. Data compiled by Angus Maddison, an economist who died earlier this year, suggest that China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years. Why they fell so far behind may be more of a mystery than why they are currently flourishing...." Norton's comment: Notice that China was in the dominant GDP position for many centuries.  USA only shows dominance starting in the 20th century.

Judge orders Fed to deliver gold records for her review | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee : "Judge orders Fed to deliver gold records for her review Submitted by cpowell 2:18p ET Monday, January 10, 2011 Gold reserves per capita (wikipedia) Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GATA today scored a small but perhaps auspicious victory over the Federal Reserve in our lawsuit seeking access to the Fed's secret gold files. The judge presiding over GATA's federal freedom-of-information lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Ellen Segal Huvelle, granted GATA's motion to order the Fed to produce in complete form for the judge's private review 20 gold-related documents the Fed has sought to keep secret. The judge ordered the Fed to deliver the documents by Friday............................ ..........If the U.S. gold reserves are just sitting somewhere, inert, unencumbered, and unused for surreptitious market intervention, what's the problem wit...

Most People will do Nothing..  This is a quote from  Porter Stansberry in my Subscription letter January 07, 2011 Here is my Story (Norton West) -A Little Family History As a student of finance and international banking, and one of America's under-employed , I have had the privilege of time to follow economic trends in 2010.  My father made it through the 1929 Crash working for a business that was stable.  His father, my grand father, did NOT make it well through the Crash of 1929.  My grandfather was a peanut broker in Waverly, VA and a local bank director.  He used all his money to payoff the bank depositors. So, now here I am in 2011 as the great grandson of John Walter West Sr. facing an economic collapse of an even greater magnitude than 1929.  I do NOT want to be caught in the continuing economic and cultural downdraft this time even though it is easy to say most of it is out of my control. In my recent experience, as Porter Stansberry ...

Weekend Edition : "Weekend Edition Prepare yourself for the impending global crisis Saturday, January 8, 2011 By now, you should have seen Porter Stansberry's prediction for 'The End of America.' His recent video was the culmination of years of research and observation, which led him to this conclusion... The U.S. dollar and economy are doomed. The U.S. government has printed more money and taken on more debt than it can ever repay. But the U.S.'s situation isn't unique. We've seen it play out many times throughout history. Whenever a sovereign nation becomes so indebted it can never hope to repay, it inflates. And the scary thing is, inflation is already running rampant. Take a peek at the chart below and its explanation from the most recent issue of his Stansberry's Investment Advisory newsletter.." ............ As Chris Weber points out in  this week's  DailyWealth , gold has risen for 10 consecutive years. Going all the way back to...

US Inflation: Annual Percent Change (1774-2007) by  CATHERINE  on  MAY 27, 2008 in  HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES , VE INFOGRAPHICS Here is the annual percent change of  inflation  ( CPI ) in the Untied States from 1774 to 2007, which I graphed in  my previous post , but this time I added historical events to the graph: Wars, Banking Panics, Pegging Paper Money to the  Gold  and Silver Standard, Establishment of the Federal Reserve  and the US Mint.   Data from  MeasuringWorth.org

dshort.com - Financial Life Cycle Planning : "The 'Real' Mega-Bears January 8, 2011  weekend update It's time again for the weekend update of our 'Real' Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high." Click to Enlarge This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000. Here is a  nominal version  to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets. Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the today's market in relation to historic market cycles. 

YouTube - Gerald Celente on The Gary Null Show 01/03/11 : " " Get it NOW! Prepare for this! Get off the Grid!

January 8, 2011 Jesse's Café Américain: Massive Silver Withdrawals From The Comex:   "It could prove to be a watershed event, or at least an interesting scandal to observe as it unfolds. Harvery Organ's commentary: 'And now for the big silver report. We witnessed a massive withdrawal of silver unprecedented in the history of the comex. First there was a smallish 6507 oz of silver deposited to two customers, one being 497 oz and the other 6010 oz). But just look at the huge withdrawals:...." Prior report that JP Morgan recently took a massive short side position on silver: Citizens Look to Squeeze Silver Manipulator January 3, 2011 By Eric Fry American FreePress Net http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/silver_150.html There’s a lot of rumor, buzz, innuendo, chitchat and scuttlebutt about the precious metals markets these days. Most of the buzz is about JPMorgan and silver. Rumor has it that JPMorgan has amassed a whopping short position in silver......Fo...

High and Low Finance - Bankers Point to the Rules as the Problem - NYTimes.com : "On Thursday, members of a House subcommittee joined in demanding that the rules be suspended. It was a bipartisan lynching of the accounting rule writers. The panel’s chairman, Representative Paul E. Kanjorski, Democrat of Pennsylvania, said the accounting rule “does provide transparency for investors,” but that “strict application” of the rule had “exacerbated the ongoing economic crisis. Then he issued the threat. “If the regulators and standard setters do not act now to improve the standards, then the Congress will have no other option than to act itself.” Sadly, a victory for the bankers would not help them much. Even if it were true that banks would be held in higher regard now if they had not been forced to write down the value of their bad assets — and that is, at best, debatable — changing the rules now would be counterproductive. Would you trust banks more? Would other banks be more ...

OTC Derivatives vs. World GDP Statistical Data Sculptures — Visualizing Economics : "The piece consists of two layers: the lower half is a mapping of the world’s GDP and the top half is a mapping of the derivatives volume, alloted to the coordinates of the countries on a map." Norton's comment: So you can see the scale of OTC outstanding Derivatives in each country is MORE than the size of their annual GDP (gross domestic product)!  This is still the case!  Many of these derivatives are still listed and reported by the banks and the FED at face value when they could very well be worth 10 cents on the dollar. So, when will these assets(or contingent liabilities) be revealed?  What effect will they have on the stock market? On the bond market, on the financial statements?  Don't you think that this is indeed a "... The Total Notional Value of OTC Derivatives Outstanding dropped f rom some $683 Trillion as of June, 2008 to $592 Trillion as of December, 2...

The Consumer becomes “The Consumed” by Mish : "The Consumer becomes “The Consumed” by Mish - Global Economic Analysis  Published : January 03rd, 2011 Following is one of the more fascinating emails I have ever received. It is from reader Sally Odland who every year partakes in a 'different ritual' celebration on New Year's Eve, a tradition she picked up on a trip to Ecuador....."

Forecast 2011 - Gird Your Loins for Lower Living Standards by James Howard Kunstler : "...What's left of the American economy is a web of financial rackets divorced from the production of real wealth, dependent on an elaborate computerized three-card-monte edifice of swindling. Those groans and creakings you hear are the agonies of this ediface swaying under its burden of lies, while underneath it the ground of history shifts.. "

Pay attention to the bond market’s new ‘creatures’ By Aline van Duyn  Published: December 3 2010 19:14 New creatures have entered the bond market ecosystem en masse. What is not yet known is whether these creatures will change the way the ecosystem works. Are they benign, or are they malignant? The “creatures” I’m referring to are from planet Earth. Indeed, many of them are probably reading this newspaper. They are the individual investors who have been pouring their savings into bonds like never before......" Norton's comment: How long will these new bond holders tolerate negative returns? Maybe 3 months Treasuries make sense but long term rates don't. That is why I have bet on the reverse US Treasury ETF (TBT). See chart above.It has been rising since Oct. announcement of QE2. Also see 20 Year Treasury Yields below. Remember, the yields go up as they are sold at auction for a discount, since buys are less inclined to see value in a declining US Dollar as the F...

Jesse's Café Américain: Gold and Silver Weekly Charts: Currency Wars Continue and then Intensify : "01 JANUARY 2011 Gold and Silver Weekly Charts: Currency Wars Continue and then Intensify Since the rather sharp breakout from the cup and handle formation, gold has assumed what appears to be a steady, sustainable trend. Yes there will be rallies and corrections. It appears that gold will be bumping into the upper end of its trend channel between 1455 and 1480 in the beginning of 2011. If it maintains the current tight channel, which I think it will do unless there is a panic liquidation, 1390 *should* hold. A more serious sell off could test 1250. Will those waiting for a chance to get back into the gold bull market buy into position if it drops to 1390? Or even 1250? If they did not buy into the worst correction down to 700-50 on this chart then they will probably not. Once you lose your position in a bull market it is very difficult to swallow your pride and cli...

by Philip Moeller Friday, December 31, 2010 When Texas Governor Rick Perry recently threatened to pull his state out of Medicaid, he was hardly alone. Across the country, state budgets continue to be strapped. Federal stimulus dollars are running out. And the latest federal tax and stimulus package will not provide much relief at the state and local levels. Meanwhile, looming provisions of health reform will add a projected 16 million to the Medicaid rolls. Where are the facilities to take care of these folks? Where is the money? As the United States slogs its way through a third year of recessionary conditions, the cumulative impact on government support programs for older ..........