Jesse's Café Américain: Volatility Then and Now: "As you may recall, there was a steady ramp higher in stocks at the end of 2009 until about January 19, 2010. There was also a corresponding drop in the VIX volatility index to rather low levels.
There was a precipitous sell off in stocks in the latter part of that January as the market corrected from an artificial and highly overbought condition.
Beware of artificial complacency for it always masks a fraud...."
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Monday, January 17, 2011
Openness not globalisation, stresses Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz in Cairo
How to regain US dominance in Education, innovation and World leadership
by Norton >>>I love this quote from Edward Stiglitz"
Stiglitz listed five ingredients to change the comparative advantage that a country has through dynamic economics. It is all about education, openness and innovation, he insisted...."
Openness not globalisation, stresses Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz in Cairo - Economy - Business - Ahram Online: "Stiglitz listed five ingredients to change the comparative advantage that a country has through dynamic economics. It is all about education, openness and innovation, he insisted....
Gold and Silver ETF Holdings Decline
Gold and Silver ETF Holdings Decline As Precious Metals Continue Sideways Price Action:
January 12, 2011
After major upward price movement during the later half of 2010, both the SLV and GLD continue their sideway price action.
As gold and silver prices continue to consolidate, gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) and silver holdings in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both declined..."
Despite the lack of correlation between gold prices and gold holdings of the GLD, investing in the GLD has produced approximately similar returns to owning bullion, disregarding transaction costs. The price gain during 2010 was approximately 28% for both gold bullion and the GLD. For those who choose to avoid holding the physical metal, the GLD was an excellent substitute choice for gold bullion in 2010.
January 12, 2011
After major upward price movement during the later half of 2010, both the SLV and GLD continue their sideway price action.
Despite the lack of correlation between gold prices and gold holdings of the GLD, investing in the GLD has produced approximately similar returns to owning bullion, disregarding transaction costs. The price gain during 2010 was approximately 28% for both gold bullion and the GLD. For those who choose to avoid holding the physical metal, the GLD was an excellent substitute choice for gold bullion in 2010.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
US Banks Reporting Phantom Income on $1.4 Trillion Delinquent Mortgages - Robert Lenzner - StreetTalk - Forbes
US Banks Reporting Phantom Income on $1.4 Trillion Delinquent Mortgages - Robert Lenzner - StreetTalk - Forbes: "The giant US banks have been bailed out again from huge potential writeoffs by loosey-goosey accounting accepted by the accounting profession and the regulators.
They are allowed to accrue interest on non-performing mortgages ” until the actual foreclosure takes place, which on average takes about 16 months.....
They are allowed to accrue interest on non-performing mortgages ” until the actual foreclosure takes place, which on average takes about 16 months.....
This means that Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, among hundreds of other smaller institutions, can report interest due them, but not paid, on an estimated $1.4 trillion of face value mortgages on the 7 million homes that are in the process of being foreclosed."
Friday, January 14, 2011
S&P, Moody's Warn On U.S. Credit Rating - WSJ.com
S&P, Moody's Warn On U.S. Credit Rating - WSJ.com: "By MARK GONGLOFF, MARK BROWN And NATHALIE BOSCHAT
With attention focused on sovereign-debt worries in Europe, two major credit-rating firms reminded investors again that the U.S. has debt problems of its own.
Investors bought Treasury debt nonetheless, ignoring the comments, which echoed prior statements by the companies and may still be months or years away from having any practical meaning
Norton's comment: Are you preparing for this?
With attention focused on sovereign-debt worries in Europe, two major credit-rating firms reminded investors again that the U.S. has debt problems of its own.
Investors bought Treasury debt nonetheless, ignoring the comments, which echoed prior statements by the companies and may still be months or years away from having any practical meaning
"The warning on the U.S. rating is well-founded," said Brian Yelvington, chief fixed-income strategist at Knight Capital. "However, it will probably fall on deaf ears until the peripheral Europe story plays out."
Moody's Investors Service said in a report on Thursday that the U.S. will need to reverse the expansion of its debt if it hopes to keep its "Aaa" rating....."Norton's comment: Are you preparing for this?
Shorting Municipal bonds? Read Carefully.
How We Know the Crisis Has Arrived
by End of America video by Porter Stansberry
by End of America video by Porter Stansberry
For us, the moment arrived five years ago. We noticed the dollar collapsing against both gold and the currencies of our trading partners. We could see the problems on the balance sheets of car makers, investment banks, and Freddie and Fannie. We watched, aware of the risks, when investors bid up real estate prices, oil prices, gold prices... almost anything to get out of the dollar....
We would urge you to share these facts (and our "End of America" video presentation) with anyone you care about.
Here are the top seven factors we believe MUST lead to the end of the global U.S. dollar standard – what we call The End of America
Seven Ways to Know:
1.The price of gold has gone up for 10 years in a row.
2.Our government's deficits are out of control
3.The government cannot increase tax revenues enough to cover our spending or repay our debts – ever.
4.Special-interest groups – particularly government unions – are looting our Treasury. Self-serving special interest groups have completely hijacked government spending.....
5.We're printing money just like the banana republics we used to mock.
6.We can't repay our debts. Total debt outstanding in the U.S. currently exceeds $55 trillion.
7.Shockingly, new debt issuance in the U.S. is soaring, with the lowest-quality debtors borrowing record amounts.
We would urge you to share these facts (and our "End of America" video presentation) with anyone you care about.
Here are the top seven factors we believe MUST lead to the end of the global U.S. dollar standard – what we call The End of America
Seven Ways to Know:
1.The price of gold has gone up for 10 years in a row.
2.Our government's deficits are out of control
3.The government cannot increase tax revenues enough to cover our spending or repay our debts – ever.
4.Special-interest groups – particularly government unions – are looting our Treasury. Self-serving special interest groups have completely hijacked government spending.....
5.We're printing money just like the banana republics we used to mock.
6.We can't repay our debts. Total debt outstanding in the U.S. currently exceeds $55 trillion.
7.Shockingly, new debt issuance in the U.S. is soaring, with the lowest-quality debtors borrowing record amounts.
Why No One Else Is Issuing These Warnings
You may read these facts and ask, "Where are the ratings agencies? Why does a small newsletter based in Baltimore, Maryland seem to have the jump on everyone in Washington and most of the people in New York? Why aren't these facts in the newspaper? On the news at night? In magazines?"
The answer: Government spending now makes up more than 40% of our economy. No big business can afford to offend its best customer. And most also depend on the government for protection from competition, in the form of licenses or permits.
".......The easiest and most direct way to profit from the coming collapse of municipal finance is simply to short the bonds of the lowest-quality municipal issuers. One ETF in particular should be on your radar: the Market Vectors High-Yield Muni ETF (NYSE: HYD). Look at the following chart of the ETF. As you can see, it is collapsing. More than 30% of its holdings are rated below 'B' – which is deep into junk status. Most of the other bonds it owns are triple B, double B, or B. Most of these bonds will be downgraded at some point this year. And many of them will default."...........more
Norton's comment: I am sharing this with you because I feel it is urgent for all my friends and acquaintance's to protect their hard earned savings and additionally figure out they can thrive during this catastrophe.
The answer: Government spending now makes up more than 40% of our economy. No big business can afford to offend its best customer. And most also depend on the government for protection from competition, in the form of licenses or permits.
".......The easiest and most direct way to profit from the coming collapse of municipal finance is simply to short the bonds of the lowest-quality municipal issuers. One ETF in particular should be on your radar: the Market Vectors High-Yield Muni ETF (NYSE: HYD). Look at the following chart of the ETF. As you can see, it is collapsing. More than 30% of its holdings are rated below 'B' – which is deep into junk status. Most of the other bonds it owns are triple B, double B, or B. Most of these bonds will be downgraded at some point this year. And many of them will default."...........more
Norton's comment: I am sharing this with you because I feel it is urgent for all my friends and acquaintance's to protect their hard earned savings and additionally figure out they can thrive during this catastrophe.
American Economic Power GDP:A little historical perspective
China's economy: Hello America | The Economist:
August 16, 2010
"CHINA has become the world's second biggest economy according to data released on Monday August 16th. Japan's economy fell behind China's at market exchange rates in the second quarter (it has been number three in PPP terms for some time). These numbers are not strictly comparable: Japan's data have been seasonally adjusted while those for China have not. Quibbles aside, Japan will surely be eclipsed soon, if it has not been already. Data compiled by Angus Maddison, an economist who died earlier this year, suggest that China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years. Why they fell so far behind may be more of a mystery than why they are currently flourishing...."
August 16, 2010
"CHINA has become the world's second biggest economy according to data released on Monday August 16th. Japan's economy fell behind China's at market exchange rates in the second quarter (it has been number three in PPP terms for some time). These numbers are not strictly comparable: Japan's data have been seasonally adjusted while those for China have not. Quibbles aside, Japan will surely be eclipsed soon, if it has not been already. Data compiled by Angus Maddison, an economist who died earlier this year, suggest that China and India were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years. Why they fell so far behind may be more of a mystery than why they are currently flourishing...."
Norton's comment: Notice that China was in the dominant GDP position for many centuries. USA only shows dominance starting in the 20th century.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Judge orders Fed to deliver gold records for her review | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
Judge orders Fed to deliver gold records for her review | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee: "Judge orders Fed to deliver gold records for her review
Submitted by cpowell 2:18p ET Monday, January 10, 2011
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA today scored a small but perhaps auspicious victory over the Federal Reserve in our lawsuit seeking access to the Fed's secret gold files. The judge presiding over GATA's federal freedom-of-information lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Ellen Segal Huvelle, granted GATA's motion to order the Fed to produce in complete form for the judge's private review 20 gold-related documents the Fed has sought to keep secret. The judge ordered the Fed to deliver the documents by Friday............................
Submitted by cpowell 2:18p ET Monday, January 10, 2011
 |
| Gold reserves per capita (wikipedia) |
GATA today scored a small but perhaps auspicious victory over the Federal Reserve in our lawsuit seeking access to the Fed's secret gold files. The judge presiding over GATA's federal freedom-of-information lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Ellen Segal Huvelle, granted GATA's motion to order the Fed to produce in complete form for the judge's private review 20 gold-related documents the Fed has sought to keep secret. The judge ordered the Fed to deliver the documents by Friday............................
..........If the U.S. gold reserves are just sitting somewhere, inert, unencumbered, and unused for surreptitious market intervention, what's the problem with full disclosure?
Financial journalists unafraid of aggravating the world's financial powers should start putting gold-related questions to the Fed and other central banks and stop simply assuming that secrecy should be the normal order of things with central banks and gold.
And people everywhere who believe in free markets in the monetary metals and who have not already supported GATA financially can join our struggle here:
This struggle could have been undertaken easily and likely more effectively by the World Gold Council, which aims to represent gold mining companies and gold investors. But the council's indifference to questions of surreptitious central bank intervention in the gold market has left the struggle to GATA. We need your help to pursue this struggle to victory for free markets, limited government, and a better, fairer world.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc."Most people will do nothing..Part I of series by Nortoni
Most People will do Nothing.. This is a quote from Porter Stansberry in my Subscription letter January 07, 2011
Here is my Story (Norton West) -A Little Family HistoryAs a student of finance and international banking, and one of America's under-employed, I have had the privilege of time to follow economic trends in 2010. My father made it through the 1929 Crash working for a business that was stable. His father, my grand father, did NOT make it well through the Crash of 1929. My grandfather was a peanut broker in Waverly, VA and a local bank director. He used all his money to payoff the bank depositors.
So, now here I am in 2011 as the great grandson of John Walter West Sr. facing an economic collapse of an even greater magnitude than 1929. I do NOT want to be caught in the continuing economic and cultural downdraft this time even though it is easy to say most of it is out of my control.
In my recent experience, as Porter Stansberry also expresses, "most people will do nothing" ...when faced with this economic disaster. Why do they do nothing?
Here is my take on it and my journey to find an answer, to take control, to keep informed, get educated, take personal action and offer an avenue for others to take control of their financial and personal future.
1. Most families, couples or single parents are running so fast, working multiple jobs, getting educated, paying off debt, finding time to rest, taking care of kids, maintaining a home...........they are exhausted before the day ends and just happy to have a roof over their head and a bed to sleep on. Then they start all over the next day.
2. This information only highlights one more thing out of their control. It is too depressing to consider. They just need to focus on one day at a time.
3. They have not been educated in economic, personal finance, central banking, global economics or debt management. They are just over-whelmed with what they already have on their plate. Let someone else deal with these matters.
4. Over 50% of fathers are absent. Single mom homes are for the most part not making it and the absence of a father can NOT be filled by an overworked mom and kids that are never home with their parents for valuable functional family time!
5. Powerful marketing forces have shaped our view of ourselves, what we consider our rights, our picture of the American dream and how we get there. This largely deceptive, manipulation of our view of reality, self, position in the community and abilities to change things derives from the research and practice of psychology based on Sigmund Freud. Watch the BBC special titled "The Century of Self" if you are interested.
Ok, OK, that is enough! I could go on but I know your time is precious.
The point is our Democracy has been hijacked
by big corporate interests, secret power brokers, and subsequently a mass marketing system of ideas and products that do NOT sustain the original concept of representative democracy. The foundation of our democracy was based on broad participation of an educated, participative citizenry and a dynamic economic environment for the middle class to grow and improve itself. Additionally, it is based on a representative democracy. That is, the elected legislators are responsive, accessible and available to their constituency. It is based on an educated, critical thinking, independent thinking, well educated citizenry. THIS IS NOT WHAT WE HAVE NOW! Our social institutions have been privatized and serve the directors and stockholders, NOT the citizenry! Such as, healthcare, prison system, the military....the result is we cannot find the people in charge. If we can, they will not answer the phone. All we get is a recording and no callback! In the meantime our government is giving away trillions of our tax dollars to the very power brokers that have caused the collapse in the first place.So if you are ready to stop reading and just bank on this crisis passing
......then as a friend, colleague or family member do yourself a favor. Be just a little curious. I have a plan for us all to take charge of our future but please answer the following CRITICAL QUESTIONS put forward by Porter Stansberry first:· How high will gold have to get before you think something is seriously wrong?
· How high will silver have to get?
· How many banks will the FDIC have to close before you consider the dollar to be unsafe?
· How many municipalities will have to go under before you think there's a crisis?
· How European states will have to leave the euro before you begin to doubt the stability of the world's paper currencies?
· How high will agriculture prices have to go before you see that a global food panic is underway?
I (Porter) suggest you write down the answers to these questions now. Because almost no matter what you answered, you'll get to that point soon…..
Norton's comment: Then if you are still curious and willing to consider that the givens and assumptions we grew up thinking are NOT in effect today but we can adapt and prosper..read my PART II of this posting.
Best regards,
Nortoni West
Prepare yourself for the impending global crisis
Weekend Edition: "Weekend Edition
Prepare yourself for the impending global crisis
Saturday, January 8, 2011
By now, you should have seen Porter Stansberry's prediction for 'The End of America.' His recent video was the culmination of years of research and observation, which led him to this conclusion... The U.S. dollar and economy are doomed. The U.S. government has printed more money and taken on more debt than it can ever repay.
But the U.S.'s situation isn't unique. We've seen it play out many times throughout history. Whenever a sovereign nation becomes so indebted it can never hope to repay, it inflates. And the scary thing is, inflation is already running rampant. Take a peek at the chart below and its explanation from the most recent issue of his Stansberry's Investment Advisory newsletter.."
............As Chris Weber points out in this week's DailyWealth, gold has risen for 10 consecutive years. Going all the way back to 1980, Chris never found another market with the same consistency.
Prepare yourself for the impending global crisis
Saturday, January 8, 2011
By now, you should have seen Porter Stansberry's prediction for 'The End of America.' His recent video was the culmination of years of research and observation, which led him to this conclusion... The U.S. dollar and economy are doomed. The U.S. government has printed more money and taken on more debt than it can ever repay.
But the U.S.'s situation isn't unique. We've seen it play out many times throughout history. Whenever a sovereign nation becomes so indebted it can never hope to repay, it inflates. And the scary thing is, inflation is already running rampant. Take a peek at the chart below and its explanation from the most recent issue of his Stansberry's Investment Advisory newsletter.."
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............As Chris Weber points out in this week's DailyWealth, gold has risen for 10 consecutive years. Going all the way back to 1980, Chris never found another market with the same consistency.
And he agrees gold's rally isn't over. Go to the grocery store and ask people if they own gold... Not gold jewelry, but actual gold bullion. Most do not. Sure, gold is making headlines. But until your waiter, auto mechanic, and tailor are showing off their new Canadian Maple Leafs, you can bet gold will rally. If we do see a short-term dip down to $1,300 or $1,200, we'd treat it as a tremendous buying opportunity.
And it helps that the Federal Reserve is hell-bent on printing the dollar into oblivion......
Sunday, January 9, 2011
US Inflation: Annual Percent Change (1774-2007)
Here is the annual percent change of inflation (CPI) in the Untied States from 1774 to 2007, which I graphed in my previous post, but this time I added historical events to the graph: Wars, Banking Panics, Pegging Paper Money to the Gold and Silver Standard, Establishment of the
Federal Reserve and the US Mint.
Federal Reserve and the US Mint.
Data from MeasuringWorth.org
Financial Life Cycle Planning - Comparisons
dshort.com - Financial Life Cycle Planning: "The 'Real' Mega-Bears
January 8, 2011 weekend update
It's time again for the weekend update of our 'Real' Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high."
Click to Enlarge
January 8, 2011 weekend update
It's time again for the weekend update of our 'Real' Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high."
This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.
Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.
Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the today's market in relation to historic market cycles.
YouTube - Gerald Celente on The Gary Null Show 01/03/11
YouTube - Gerald Celente on The Gary Null Show 01/03/11: ""
Get it NOW!
Prepare for this! Get off the Grid!
Get it NOW!
Prepare for this! Get off the Grid!
Massive Silver Withdrawals From The Comex
January 8, 2011
Jesse's Café Américain: Massive Silver Withdrawals From The Comex:
"It could prove to be a watershed event, or at least an interesting scandal to observe as it unfolds.
Harvery Organ's commentary:
'And now for the big silver report.
We witnessed a massive withdrawal of silver unprecedented in the history of the comex. First there was a smallish 6507 oz of silver deposited to two customers, one being 497 oz and the other 6010 oz). But just look at the huge withdrawals:...."
Harvery Organ's commentary:
'And now for the big silver report.
We witnessed a massive withdrawal of silver unprecedented in the history of the comex. First there was a smallish 6507 oz of silver deposited to two customers, one being 497 oz and the other 6010 oz). But just look at the huge withdrawals:...."
Prior report that JP Morgan recently took a massive short side position on silver:
There’s a lot of rumor, buzz, innuendo, chitchat and scuttlebutt about the precious metals markets these days. Most of the buzz is about JPMorgan and silver. Rumor has it that JPMorgan has amassed a whopping short position in silver......For perspective, 3.3 billion ounces is roughly equal to one-third of all the world’s known silver deposits; two times the world’s approximate stockpiles of silver bullion; four times the annual mined supply of silver; 30 times the inventory of silver at the COMEX.....So it should come as no surprise that a grassroots campaign has formed, the sole purpose of which is to punish JPMorgan for its attempted manipulation of the silver market.
“A viral campaign to buy physical silver and ‘crash’ the bank is now spreading like wildfire on the Internet,” Rubin reports. “Just Google [the words] ‘Crash JP Morgan; Buy Silver’ [to learn more about it]. . . .Those who wish to participate in squeezing the living daylights out of JPMorgan may want to consider buying physical silver, silver futures and [the iShares Silver Trust, which issues stock backed by silver].”
Maybe the story about JPMorgan’s short position in silver is mere innuendo. Maybe not. But two facts are irrefutable:........
Citizens Look to Squeeze Silver Manipulator January 3, 2011
By Eric Fry American FreePress Net http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/silver_150.htmlThere’s a lot of rumor, buzz, innuendo, chitchat and scuttlebutt about the precious metals markets these days. Most of the buzz is about JPMorgan and silver. Rumor has it that JPMorgan has amassed a whopping short position in silver......For perspective, 3.3 billion ounces is roughly equal to one-third of all the world’s known silver deposits; two times the world’s approximate stockpiles of silver bullion; four times the annual mined supply of silver; 30 times the inventory of silver at the COMEX.....So it should come as no surprise that a grassroots campaign has formed, the sole purpose of which is to punish JPMorgan for its attempted manipulation of the silver market.
“A viral campaign to buy physical silver and ‘crash’ the bank is now spreading like wildfire on the Internet,” Rubin reports. “Just Google [the words] ‘Crash JP Morgan; Buy Silver’ [to learn more about it]. . . .Those who wish to participate in squeezing the living daylights out of JPMorgan may want to consider buying physical silver, silver futures and [the iShares Silver Trust, which issues stock backed by silver].”
Maybe the story about JPMorgan’s short position in silver is mere innuendo. Maybe not. But two facts are irrefutable:........
Go to Gold vending machine in FloridaTuesday, January 4, 2011
High and Low Finance - Bankers Point to the Rules as the Problem
High and Low Finance - Bankers Point to the Rules as the Problem - NYTimes.com: "On Thursday, members of a House subcommittee joined in demanding that the rules be suspended. It was a bipartisan lynching of the accounting rule writers.
The panel’s chairman, Representative Paul E. Kanjorski, Democrat of Pennsylvania, said the accounting rule “does provide transparency for investors,” but that “strict application” of the rule had “exacerbated the ongoing economic crisis.
Then he issued the threat. “If the regulators and standard setters do not act now to improve the standards, then the Congress will have no other option than to act itself.”
I call it “Alice in Wonderland” accounting, after Humpty Dumpty’s claim in that book that “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.” After Alice protests, he replies, “The question is, which is to be master — that’s a..."
Norton's comment: Sadly, also this article is a year old but the banks and their congressional puppets are still messing around with Accounting Standards that would NOT fly as normal for private industry. The banks and the FED are still hiding junk assets / derivatives while listing them on their books at face value. Can anyone tell me when was the last audit of the books on the FED, the US Treasury including an inventory of gold deposits at Fort Knox? It is time for an audit! Upps, who can we trust to do and report the audit?
The panel’s chairman, Representative Paul E. Kanjorski, Democrat of Pennsylvania, said the accounting rule “does provide transparency for investors,” but that “strict application” of the rule had “exacerbated the ongoing economic crisis.
Then he issued the threat. “If the regulators and standard setters do not act now to improve the standards, then the Congress will have no other option than to act itself.”
Sadly, a victory for the bankers would not help them much. Even if it were true that banks would be held in higher regard now if they had not been forced to write down the value of their bad assets — and that is, at best, debatable — changing the rules now would be counterproductive. Would you trust banks more? Would other banks be more inclined to trust banks?
It is true, as the bankers argue, that valuing illiquid instruments is tricky. And it is true that markets can overshoot. Some of these securities may well be undervalued now. But the solution is not to go to what Robert H. Herz, the chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, calls “mark-to-management” accounting.
Norton's comment: Sadly, also this article is a year old but the banks and their congressional puppets are still messing around with Accounting Standards that would NOT fly as normal for private industry. The banks and the FED are still hiding junk assets / derivatives while listing them on their books at face value. Can anyone tell me when was the last audit of the books on the FED, the US Treasury including an inventory of gold deposits at Fort Knox? It is time for an audit! Upps, who can we trust to do and report the audit?
Stock Market & World GDP Statistical Data Sculptures — Visualizing Economics
OTC Derivatives vs. World GDP Statistical Data Sculptures — Visualizing Economics: "The piece consists of two layers: the lower half is a mapping of the
world’s GDP and the top half is a mapping of the derivatives volume,
alloted to the coordinates of the countries on a map."
Norton's comment: So you can see the scale of OTC outstanding Derivatives in each country is MORE than the size of their annual GDP (gross domestic product)! This is still the case! Many of these derivatives are still listed and reported by the banks and the FED at face value when they could very well be worth 10 cents on the dollar.
So, when will these assets(or contingent liabilities) be revealed? What effect will they have on the stock market? On the bond market, on the financial statements? Don't you think that this is indeed a "...The Total Notional Value of OTC Derivatives Outstanding dropped from some $683 Trillion as of June, 2008 to $592 Trillion as of December, 2008, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS – the Central Banker’s Bank – see www.bis.org, Path: Statistics > Derivatives > Table 19) (Ed Note: A Rough “Cocktail Party” Definition of “Notional Value” is “Unrealized Potential Maximum Value.”)
This first drop in Notional Amount of OTC Derivatives Outstanding in years, mainly reflects the massive deleveraging which occurred during the Fall, 2008 Market Crash..." from http://tiny.cc/wdw80
world’s GDP and the top half is a mapping of the derivatives volume,
Norton's comment: So you can see the scale of OTC outstanding Derivatives in each country is MORE than the size of their annual GDP (gross domestic product)! This is still the case! Many of these derivatives are still listed and reported by the banks and the FED at face value when they could very well be worth 10 cents on the dollar.
So, when will these assets(or contingent liabilities) be revealed? What effect will they have on the stock market? On the bond market, on the financial statements? Don't you think that this is indeed a "...The Total Notional Value of OTC Derivatives Outstanding dropped from some $683 Trillion as of June, 2008 to $592 Trillion as of December, 2008, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS – the Central Banker’s Bank – see www.bis.org, Path: Statistics > Derivatives > Table 19) (Ed Note: A Rough “Cocktail Party” Definition of “Notional Value” is “Unrealized Potential Maximum Value.”)
This first drop in Notional Amount of OTC Derivatives Outstanding in years, mainly reflects the massive deleveraging which occurred during the Fall, 2008 Market Crash..." from http://tiny.cc/wdw80
from Seeking Alpha
Also see original article at http://tiny.cc/uyj6y Hera Research, LLC
Monday, January 3, 2011
The Consumer becomes “The Consumed” by Mish
The Consumer becomes “The Consumed” by Mish: "The Consumer becomes “The Consumed”
by Mish - Global Economic Analysis Published : January 03rd, 2011
Following is one of the more fascinating emails I have ever received. It is from reader Sally Odland who every year partakes in a 'different ritual' celebration on New Year's Eve, a tradition she picked up on a trip to Ecuador....."
by Mish - Global Economic Analysis Published : January 03rd, 2011
Forecast 2011 - Gird Your Loins for Lower Living Standards by James Howard Kunstler
Forecast 2011 - Gird Your Loins for Lower Living Standards by James Howard Kunstler:
"...What's left of the American economy is a web of financial rackets divorced from the production of real wealth, dependent on an elaborate computerized three-card-monte edifice of swindling. Those groans and creakings you hear are the agonies of this ediface swaying under its burden of lies, while underneath it the ground of history shifts.. "
"...What's left of the American economy is a web of financial rackets divorced from the production of real wealth, dependent on an elaborate computerized three-card-monte edifice of swindling. Those groans and creakings you hear are the agonies of this ediface swaying under its burden of lies, while underneath it the ground of history shifts.. "
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Pay attention to the bond market’s new ‘creatures’
Pay attention to the bond market’s new ‘creatures’
By Aline van Duyn Published: December 3 2010 19:14New creatures have entered the bond market ecosystem en masse. What is not yet known is whether these creatures will change the way the ecosystem works. Are they benign, or are they malignant?
The “creatures” I’m referring to are from planet Earth. Indeed, many of them are probably reading this newspaper. They are the individual investors who have been pouring their savings into bonds like never before......"
Norton's comment: How long will these new bond holders tolerate negative returns? Maybe 3 months Treasuries make sense but long term rates don't. That is why I have bet on the reverse US Treasury ETF (TBT). See chart above.It has been rising since Oct. announcement of QE2.
Also see 20 Year Treasury Yields below. Remember, the yields go up as they are sold at auction for a discount, since buys are less inclined to see value in a declining US Dollar as the FED floods make with newly printed dollars; that is, if the face value is $ 1000, they must sell at a discount of less than face value to find buyers. Thus, the yield goes up.
Jesse's Café Américain: Gold and Silver Weekly Charts: Currency Wars Continue and then Intensify
Jesse's Café Américain: Gold and Silver Weekly Charts: Currency Wars Continue and then Intensify: "01 JANUARY 2011
Gold and Silver Weekly Charts: Currency Wars Continue and then Intensify
Since the rather sharp breakout from the cup and handle formation, gold has assumed what appears to be a steady, sustainable trend.
Yes there will be rallies and corrections. It appears that gold will be bumping into the upper end of its trend channel between 1455 and 1480 in the beginning of 2011.
If it maintains the current tight channel, which I think it will do unless there is a panic liquidation, 1390 *should* hold.
A more serious sell off could test 1250.
Will those waiting for a chance to get back into the gold bull market buy into position if it drops to 1390? Or even 1250?
If they did not buy into the worst correction down to 700-50 on this chart then they will probably not. Once you lose your position in a bull market it is very difficult to swallow your pride and climb back on board. One tends to keep waiting for THE low.
Gold is rising because the fiat currencies of the developed nations are being devalued......"
Gold and Silver Weekly Charts: Currency Wars Continue and then Intensify
Since the rather sharp breakout from the cup and handle formation, gold has assumed what appears to be a steady, sustainable trend.
Yes there will be rallies and corrections. It appears that gold will be bumping into the upper end of its trend channel between 1455 and 1480 in the beginning of 2011.
If it maintains the current tight channel, which I think it will do unless there is a panic liquidation, 1390 *should* hold.
A more serious sell off could test 1250.
Will those waiting for a chance to get back into the gold bull market buy into position if it drops to 1390? Or even 1250?
If they did not buy into the worst correction down to 700-50 on this chart then they will probably not. Once you lose your position in a bull market it is very difficult to swallow your pride and climb back on board. One tends to keep waiting for THE low.
Senior Safety Nets at Risk in 2011
by Philip Moeller
Friday, December 31, 2010
Friday, December 31, 2010
When Texas Governor Rick Perry recently threatened to pull his state out of Medicaid, he was hardly alone. Across the country, state budgets continue to be strapped. Federal stimulus dollars are running out. And the latest federal tax and stimulus package will not provide much relief at the state and local levels. Meanwhile, looming provisions of health reform will add a projected 16 million to the Medicaid rolls. Where are the facilities to take care of these folks? Where is the money?
As the United States slogs its way through a third year of recessionary conditions, the cumulative impact on government support programs for older ..........
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