Stealth Stocks Bull Market, Sell in May and Go Away?

The anticipated target for the current bull market by year end is 50%, the move to date amounts to more than 54% of the target in less than than 15% of the time period which gives ample time for several reactions lower against the trend. Therefore the only question now is how deep could the downtrend be, in that regard we have price points, retracement levels, and the MACD indicator to look at.
MACD - The MACD indicator cross has given a SELL signal, at best this means sideways price action, but more probably a significant downtrend that will seek to correct the up trend from Dow 6470.
Trend Analysis - The rally has been strong AND powerful, but it is showing signs of running out of steam, this is evidenced by the shrinking gap between each up thrust following each correction with the most recent correction 'so far' failing to break to a new trend high which gives a risk of a lower low. The rally is tired folks, it needs to take a break.
Retracement Levels - 33% - 50% - 66% - The Dow has rallied from a trough of 6470 to a peak of 8190 totaling 1720 points, key retracement levels are 33% = 7,622; 50% = 7,330; 66% = 7,050. Therefore the minimum correction from the current swing peak is expected to carry between 7,622 to 7,330. Anticipating a rally to 8,750 this points to levels of 33% 8,000; 50% 7,610 - Which reinforces the target of 7,600, with probable overshoot lower implying 7,500.
Price Points - Immediate support levels are 7,800, 7750, and then 7,440. For the health of the stealth stocks bull market a correction should not carry below 7,440 this therefore implies support in the region of 7,500 to 7,440. Overhead resistance is clearly first at 8,190, then 8,400; with major resistance in the area 8,900 to 9,080. This implies the current upswing should continue into the area of between 8,400 to 8,900 with probability favouring 8,800.
Elliott Wave - My elliot wave interpretation implies that the market should continue rallying for another to 3 weeks to mark the end of the first impulse major wave towards 9,000. to be followed an A-B-C correction towards 7,500 for a larger wave 2 correction.
Swine Flu Black Swan ? - Swine fever is spreading, is this the big pandemic that we have been fearing all these years with the previous focus on avian flu? There is a good probability that the financial markets will discount the worst case scenario along the lines of avian flu a few years ago early next week, therefore this brings in an immediate bearish influence against what looked set as a continuing rally into early May which implies greater volatility than expected depending on the progress of the virus. Though amidst the overall gloom big pharma that produce treatments should rally.