The decline has progressed more quickly than anticipated.If you start reading the blog entries in 2007, one can see how the case for recession was carefully built up based on the indicators, and the probability steadily increased from an estimate of 65% in early December.
Although fundamentals don't work in the short term, in the longer term the markets work, and the fundamentals count, probabilities pay off, and there is a reversion to the means. The trick in trading is not to be trapped by leverage, timeframes and capital risk.
Once again a special thanks to our friend Elvis_Knows for his excellent graphics."
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