Nov 14th, 2008 | By Louis Basenese |
Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…
You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).
Most of the indicators that the market relies on to forecast the future are worthless in this type of environment. The truth is the data coming out of the traditional economic indicators isn’t current. By the time it’s being reported, the information is already weeks or even months old...
4 Reasons to Favor The Baltic Dry Index
Of course, there are other reasons to favor the Baltic Dry Index over other leading indicators, including:
No room for speculation. The index is not tradable, which means the only people booking cargo ships are those with actual cargo to ship. That makes the Baltic Dry Index, as economist Howard Simons put it, “totally devoid of speculative content.”
Not subject to revisions. Unlike almost every other piece of economic data, the Baltic Dry Index is not revised on a monthly or quarterly basis. The price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
An inability to be manipulated. Governments, both here and abroad, love to “massage” economic data, especially inflation figures. Obviously, it’s difficult to base investment decisions off incomplete or “mostly” accurate data. But because of the way the Baltic Dry Index is measured, that’s simply not possible. Again, the price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
Real-time, daily updates. We all know markets shift fast. And in turn, we need indicators able to reflect those sudden movements. At best, we only get weekly updates for other leading indicators. And all are backward looking. The Baltic Dry Index represents the only indicator with “real-time” updates. And such frequency dramatically increases its relevancy and value. .."
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