AlphaTrends
Norton's comment: Perhaps this is a similar thrill to day trading?
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Loin embraces friends - Love Prevails!
My Yahoo!: "Lion embraces friends
Even after he returns to the wild, a city-raised lion remembers where he came from. » See their big reunion"
Norton's comment: Sorry, this isnt finance but it is a postive message that applies to life in the NOW so I couldn't help but include it here. Best, Norton
Energy Rhetoric vs Reality - an industry view
by Energy tomorrow.org. "Policymakers are talking a lot about energy and energy policy. What follows are some of the most frequently heard claims and proposals emanating from the campaign trail, along with realities that need to be considered when evaluating these claims...
REALITY: There are many factors affecting the price of gasoline.
More than 80 cents of every dollar spent at the pump goes to the price of crude and taxes. The price of crude oil is set on global markets, not by oil companies, and it accounts for more than 70 cents of every dollar of gasoline price. And the government takes nearly twice as much in taxes (13 cents) as the industry makes in profit (fewer than 8 cents).
While gasoline prices have increased dramatically this year, the price of crude oil has increased by $1.21 per gallon in 2008, compared with the price of gasoline, which is up 80 cents per gallon.
Demand is strong in both mature economies and the developing world, especially in China, India and the Middle East. The market impact of tight supplies has been exacerbated by political instability, resource mismanagement and weather. Finally, the decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies has put American consumers at a disadvantage....more"
Saturday, November 29, 2008
CDS Pricing in Increasing Treasury Default Risk
We have noted that Treasuries (and the dollar) are the remaining bubbles, although some doubts are starting to surface on the Treasury front. Paul Amery at Prudent Bear gives a good recap:
The tectonic plates underlying the whole superstructure of debt have started to shift. On the surface nothing remarkable is happening – the 30 year US Treasury bond yield recently hit an all-time low of 3.88%, as investors sought a safe haven during equity market turbulence. Yet while nominal bond yields have declined, the credit risk component of US Treasuries has been on an increasing trend since last year. According to data provided by CMA DataVision, the credit specialists, the 10-year credit default swap spread – a form of insurance contract against issuer default – has risen steadily - from 1.6 basis points (0.016%) in July 2007, to 16 basis points in March 2008, to 30 basis points in September, to over 40 basis points on October 27 – see the chart below for the spread history so far this year. In other words the cost of insuring against a US government default has risen by 25 times in little over a year. Similar trends have been evident in the UK and German government bond markets.
The tectonic plates underlying the whole superstructure of debt have started to shift. On the surface nothing remarkable is happening – the 30 year US Treasury bond yield recently hit an all-time low of 3.88%, as investors sought a safe haven during equity market turbulence. Yet while nominal bond yields have declined, the credit risk component of US Treasuries has been on an increasing trend since last year. According to data provided by CMA DataVision, the credit specialists, the 10-year credit default swap spread – a form of insurance contract against issuer default – has risen steadily - from 1.6 basis points (0.016%) in July 2007, to 16 basis points in March 2008, to 30 basis points in September, to over 40 basis points on October 27 – see the chart below for the spread history so far this year. In other words the cost of insuring against a US government default has risen by 25 times in little over a year. Similar trends have been evident in the UK and German government bond markets.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
The BIGGEST Bubble- fiat currency
In this interview with The Gold Report, Sprott Resource Corp. President and CEO Kevin Bambrough—who is also Market Strategist for Sprott Asset Management Inc
KB: I think the U.S. dollar becomes almost like the hot potato no one wants to hold. As soon as a country gets dollars, if they don't want to build up the reserves, they move them off. I think we'll start to see that trend. I'm very, very bearish on the U.S. dollar and most Western currencies over the next decade or two. The biggest bubble, which doesn't get spoken of enough, is the fiat currency bubble—the fact that paper currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, are given so much buying power when they're just being run off a printing press. That's ultimately the biggest bubble of all. There will be a day of reckoning for it for sure.
TGR: Do you put the Canadian dollar in that very bearish camp as well?
KB: I think the Canadian dollar is going to be much better off than the U.S. dollar just because it is viewed somewhat as a commodity currency, but it will weaken against gold and all commodities over the long run. If countries like China diversify away from their government bond holdings, increase their holdings of precious metals and realize that there aren't enough precious metals to go around for them to diversify in a really meaningful way; I anticipate them putting more effort into building strategic reserves of other commodities, whether it's increasing their oil reserves or other metals. There's been a lot of talk lately about China stepping up and starting to replace its copper reserves at some point in the next year. I mean, really, why not stockpile these things instead of U.S. government debt and GSE debt? They really have to deal with all the Fannie and Freddie paper; why see value in that, I don't know.
KB: I think the U.S. dollar becomes almost like the hot potato no one wants to hold. As soon as a country gets dollars, if they don't want to build up the reserves, they move them off. I think we'll start to see that trend. I'm very, very bearish on the U.S. dollar and most Western currencies over the next decade or two. The biggest bubble, which doesn't get spoken of enough, is the fiat currency bubble—the fact that paper currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, are given so much buying power when they're just being run off a printing press. That's ultimately the biggest bubble of all. There will be a day of reckoning for it for sure.
TGR: Do you put the Canadian dollar in that very bearish camp as well?
KB: I think the Canadian dollar is going to be much better off than the U.S. dollar just because it is viewed somewhat as a commodity currency, but it will weaken against gold and all commodities over the long run. If countries like China diversify away from their government bond holdings, increase their holdings of precious metals and realize that there aren't enough precious metals to go around for them to diversify in a really meaningful way; I anticipate them putting more effort into building strategic reserves of other commodities, whether it's increasing their oil reserves or other metals. There's been a lot of talk lately about China stepping up and starting to replace its copper reserves at some point in the next year. I mean, really, why not stockpile these things instead of U.S. government debt and GSE debt? They really have to deal with all the Fannie and Freddie paper; why see value in that, I don't know.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set
by Richard W. Rahn Washington Times Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Gerald O'Driscoll, a former senior Fed official and very able economist, recently said it best: "The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set, expressing amazement at how such an event could have happened.
Under a fiat monetary system, which the Fed and almost all other central banks now use, the end of the inflation only comes when the central bank finally decides to end it by restricting money and credit...
Gerald O'Driscoll, a former senior Fed official and very able economist, recently said it best: "The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set, expressing amazement at how such an event could have happened. The Fed created a moral hazard by first, implicitly, then explicitly promising to bail investors out of risky commitments. [Former Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan promised to 'mitigate the fallout' from asset deflation. How does a central bank do that? By reflating asset prices, or, as Greenspan euphemistically put it in his 1999 testimony, 'ease the transition to the next expansion.' "
Before the Fed and big government, previous bank panics usually ended quickly without "bailouts" or "economic stimulus" programs. Given that the Fed, the Treasury and the Congress are obviously confused about what to do in the current situation, history indicates that perhaps the least harmful course of action is for them to do nothing.
Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.
Gerald O'Driscoll, a former senior Fed official and very able economist, recently said it best: "The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set, expressing amazement at how such an event could have happened.
Under a fiat monetary system, which the Fed and almost all other central banks now use, the end of the inflation only comes when the central bank finally decides to end it by restricting money and credit...
Gerald O'Driscoll, a former senior Fed official and very able economist, recently said it best: "The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set, expressing amazement at how such an event could have happened. The Fed created a moral hazard by first, implicitly, then explicitly promising to bail investors out of risky commitments. [Former Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan promised to 'mitigate the fallout' from asset deflation. How does a central bank do that? By reflating asset prices, or, as Greenspan euphemistically put it in his 1999 testimony, 'ease the transition to the next expansion.' "
Before the Fed and big government, previous bank panics usually ended quickly without "bailouts" or "economic stimulus" programs. Given that the Fed, the Treasury and the Congress are obviously confused about what to do in the current situation, history indicates that perhaps the least harmful course of action is for them to do nothing.
Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.
Who Killed the Electric Car? NO BAILOUT FOR GM!
Sony Pictures Classics Presents : Who Killed the Electric Car?
Before GM gets a bailout, they must see this movie during the Congressional hearings and then see their credibility and complicity with Big Oil who do NOT want an electric or hybrid car!
The Only things Congress should be concerned about are:
1) Raising the Standard of Living for All Legal Citizens.
2) Decreasing the Cost of Living by:
a) Regulating all forms of energy (Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Heating fuel, Electricity) Tax rebates from fuel expenses based on receipts
Require mandatory nationalization, if oil industries refuse to set a fair and reasonable profit in correlation with set profit margins of all other fuel producing countries and be required to build enough refineries to prevent the current false shortages these companies have created in order to have a license to do business in the United States.
b) Regulate prices of necessities, housing, utilities, food and water, communications, and clothing.
This would be the greatest benefit to the entire nation as a whole, but I guess Congress doesn't get it.
Please Contact your U.S. Senators and U.S. House Representative Today, so we won't continue to get ripped off by the Big Oil Companies!
Contact your Senators and Congressional Representative and let them know that you demand a release of these patents of technology.
Senate http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
House http://www.house.gov/house/MemberWWW_by_State.shtml
Email Congressional Staff members to make your voice heard http://www.outsourcecongress.org/outsource/congress/schstaffers.html
Before GM gets a bailout, they must see this movie during the Congressional hearings and then see their credibility and complicity with Big Oil who do NOT want an electric or hybrid car!
The Only things Congress should be concerned about are:
1) Raising the Standard of Living for All Legal Citizens.
2) Decreasing the Cost of Living by:
a) Regulating all forms of energy (Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Heating fuel, Electricity) Tax rebates from fuel expenses based on receipts
Require mandatory nationalization, if oil industries refuse to set a fair and reasonable profit in correlation with set profit margins of all other fuel producing countries and be required to build enough refineries to prevent the current false shortages these companies have created in order to have a license to do business in the United States.
b) Regulate prices of necessities, housing, utilities, food and water, communications, and clothing.
This would be the greatest benefit to the entire nation as a whole, but I guess Congress doesn't get it.
Please Contact your U.S. Senators and U.S. House Representative Today, so we won't continue to get ripped off by the Big Oil Companies!
Contact your Senators and Congressional Representative and let them know that you demand a release of these patents of technology.
Senate http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
House http://www.house.gov/house/MemberWWW_by_State.shtml
Email Congressional Staff members to make your voice heard http://www.outsourcecongress.org/outsource/congress/schstaffers.html
Bailout Pledges Hit $7.7 Trillion - WHAT? !
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bailout Pledges Hit $7.7 Trillion: "Bloomberg is reporting U.S. Pledges Top $7.7 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit.
The money that’s been pledged is equivalent to $24,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. It’s nine times what the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Congressional Budget Office figures. It could pay off more than half the country’s mortgages.
“It’s unprecedented,” said Bob Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist at Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc. and an economist for the Atlanta Fed for 10 years until January. “The backlash has begun already. Congress is taking a lot of hits from their constituents because they got snookered on the TARP big time. There’s a lot of supposedly smart people who look to be totally incompetent and it’s all going to fall on the taxpayer.”"
Norton: "Scottie beam me up, please!.."
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said he was angry that banks used the money for acquisitions.
“The only purpose for this money is to lend,” said Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat. “It’s not for dividends, it’s not for purchases of new banks, it’s not for bonuses. There better be a showing of increased lending roughly in the amount of the capital infusions” or Congress may not approve the second half of the TARP money.
"
The money that’s been pledged is equivalent to $24,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. It’s nine times what the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Congressional Budget Office figures. It could pay off more than half the country’s mortgages.
“It’s unprecedented,” said Bob Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist at Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc. and an economist for the Atlanta Fed for 10 years until January. “The backlash has begun already. Congress is taking a lot of hits from their constituents because they got snookered on the TARP big time. There’s a lot of supposedly smart people who look to be totally incompetent and it’s all going to fall on the taxpayer.”"
Norton: "Scottie beam me up, please!.."
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said he was angry that banks used the money for acquisitions.
“The only purpose for this money is to lend,” said Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat. “It’s not for dividends, it’s not for purchases of new banks, it’s not for bonuses. There better be a showing of increased lending roughly in the amount of the capital infusions” or Congress may not approve the second half of the TARP money.
"
Community Wind Collaborative - overview
Community Wind - Introduction: "Community Wind
Collaborative Overview
Created in 2003 as a multi-million dollar statewide initiative, the Community Wind Collaborative (CWC) is dedicated to helping cities and towns tap into clean, renewable wind power. The CWC offers qualified interested communities technical assistance, wind monitoring equipment, data analysis, and competitively secured resources. Community-based initiatives in which the communities actually own local wind turbines are an excellent alternative to traditional developer-initiated approaches. Currently, more than 40 communities are exploring the potential for developing wind energy with us...
If you or your community is interested in beginning the Collaborative process, needs more information, or have questions about your ongoing work with us, feel free to contact us during the week. Our address is:
Massachusetts Technology Collaborative
75 North Drive
Westborough, MA 01581
For general inquiries about the CWC or to get your community started with us, contact:
Marybeth Campbell
508-870-0312 x238
cwc@masstech.org
"
Collaborative Overview
Created in 2003 as a multi-million dollar statewide initiative, the Community Wind Collaborative (CWC) is dedicated to helping cities and towns tap into clean, renewable wind power. The CWC offers qualified interested communities technical assistance, wind monitoring equipment, data analysis, and competitively secured resources. Community-based initiatives in which the communities actually own local wind turbines are an excellent alternative to traditional developer-initiated approaches. Currently, more than 40 communities are exploring the potential for developing wind energy with us...
If you or your community is interested in beginning the Collaborative process, needs more information, or have questions about your ongoing work with us, feel free to contact us during the week. Our address is:
Massachusetts Technology Collaborative
75 North Drive
Westborough, MA 01581
For general inquiries about the CWC or to get your community started with us, contact:
Marybeth Campbell
508-870-0312 x238
cwc@masstech.org
"
Monday, November 24, 2008
'Crisis Only Just Beginning': Right About the Crash, Peter Schiff Sees More Pain Ahead:
Technology stock picks & industry news: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance: "There's a popular YouTube clip called 'Peter Schiff Was Right' that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07....
There's a popular YouTube clip called "Peter Schiff Was Right" that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07.
The clips show the wisdom of Schiff's dire forecasts — and, judging from the dismissive reactions, just how far he was outside the mainstream.
Ben Stein publicly apologized to Schiff in a New York Times column, but Laffer refuses to admit defeat, recently telling Bill Maher his economic forecasts have a statute of limitations of just nine months..."
There's a popular YouTube clip called "Peter Schiff Was Right" that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07.
The clips show the wisdom of Schiff's dire forecasts — and, judging from the dismissive reactions, just how far he was outside the mainstream.
Ben Stein publicly apologized to Schiff in a New York Times column, but Laffer refuses to admit defeat, recently telling Bill Maher his economic forecasts have a statute of limitations of just nine months..."
The Skeptical Optimist: An $800 billion freebie, hidden in the national debt
The Skeptical Optimist: An $800 billion freebie, hidden in the national debt: "For-what-it's-worth fact about paying back the debt:
The present value of paying back all of the debt principal is exactly equal to the present value of never paying back one penny of the principal (i.e., of paying interest forever and ever)...
Once a quarter, I like to update this pie chart showing who owns the national debt—mainly so you and I can keep our politicians honest. I'll explain the $800 billion freebie below...
click to enlarge
Private sector owners of the debtThis time I added a breakout of the private sector's ownership: insurance companies, pension funds, and others. Well hidden inside the private sector's portion (until now) is $800 billion of treasury securities that, in essence, is merely a token entry on the asset side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It's the cumulative result of the Fed's so-called money printing operations: the bonds purchased by the Fed from the public, using brand new money the Fed has the authority to create out of "thin air" (...to the unjustified horror of many). Private sector owners of the debtThis time I added a breakout of the private sector's ownership: insurance companies, pension funds, and others. Well hidden inside the private sector's portion (until now) is $800 billion of treasury securities that, in essence, is merely a token entry on the asset side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It's the cumulative result of the Fed's so-called money printing operations: the bonds purchased by the Fed from the public, using brand new money the Fed has the authority to create out of "thin air" (...to the unjustified horror of many). "
The present value of paying back all of the debt principal is exactly equal to the present value of never paying back one penny of the principal (i.e., of paying interest forever and ever)...
Once a quarter, I like to update this pie chart showing who owns the national debt—mainly so you and I can keep our politicians honest. I'll explain the $800 billion freebie below...
click to enlarge
Private sector owners of the debtThis time I added a breakout of the private sector's ownership: insurance companies, pension funds, and others. Well hidden inside the private sector's portion (until now) is $800 billion of treasury securities that, in essence, is merely a token entry on the asset side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It's the cumulative result of the Fed's so-called money printing operations: the bonds purchased by the Fed from the public, using brand new money the Fed has the authority to create out of "thin air" (...to the unjustified horror of many). Private sector owners of the debtThis time I added a breakout of the private sector's ownership: insurance companies, pension funds, and others. Well hidden inside the private sector's portion (until now) is $800 billion of treasury securities that, in essence, is merely a token entry on the asset side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It's the cumulative result of the Fed's so-called money printing operations: the bonds purchased by the Fed from the public, using brand new money the Fed has the authority to create out of "thin air" (...to the unjustified horror of many). "Dry-Bulk Shipping Demand Dries Up (DSX, EGLE, EXM) | November 20, 2008 | By Todd Shriber
Dry-Bulk Shipping Demand Dries Up (DSX, EGLE, EXM) November 20, 2008 By Todd Shriber - Investopedia Advisor: "The end of the commodities bull market has certainly left its fair share of victims in its wake. Shares of basic materials, energy, fertilizer, metals and mining stocks have all been slammed as commodity prices have come crashing back to earth. Dry bulk shipping stocks may have shed the most blood as they are dependent on global demand for coal, iron ore, oil and other commodities to make profit and as demand has dwindled, so has investor appetite for shipping stocks...
Despite the fall in share prices, shipping stocks may be offering investors some value here, especially when considering their almost freakishly high dividend yields. (Be sure to check out The Importance Of Dividends.)
Company 52-week Decline Dividend(Yield)* Dry Bulk Dividends
DryShips(Nasdaq:DRYS) 95% $0.80 (18%)
Eagle Bulk Shipping(Nasdaq:EGLE) 85% $2.00 (47%)
Excel Maritime(NYSE:EXM) 89% $1.60 (32%)
Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE:GNK) 87% $3.85 (52%)
TTM dividend as of noon November 20, 2008
BALTIC DRY INDEX CHART
Despite the fall in share prices, shipping stocks may be offering investors some value here, especially when considering their almost freakishly high dividend yields. (Be sure to check out The Importance Of Dividends.)
Company 52-week Decline Dividend(Yield)* Dry Bulk Dividends
DryShips(Nasdaq:DRYS) 95% $0.80 (18%)
Eagle Bulk Shipping(Nasdaq:EGLE) 85% $2.00 (47%)
Excel Maritime(NYSE:EXM) 89% $1.60 (32%)
Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE:GNK) 87% $3.85 (52%)
TTM dividend as of noon November 20, 2008
BALTIC DRY INDEX CHART
Friday, November 21, 2008
Prospects for Gold: with New Eyes: ...read more
Jesse's Café Américain:
"'But what creates the most intense surprise
His soul looks out through renovated eyes.'
John Keats, Ode to Apollo"
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Time To Lift The Veil - on Credit Default Swaps
Time To Lift The Veil - Forbes.com
In response to these concerns regarding the OTC nature of credit derivatives markets, the Federal Reserve has initiated a move to migrate the clearing of credit default swap contracts through a platform offered jointly by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (nyse: CME - news - people ) and the hedge fund Citadel. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (New York) and LCH.Clearnet Group (London) have announced a merger to create the world's largest clearing house, also providing services for OTC products such as interest-rate swaps and credit default swaps.
These developments augur well for the credit derivatives market and overall financial stability..."
In response to these concerns regarding the OTC nature of credit derivatives markets, the Federal Reserve has initiated a move to migrate the clearing of credit default swap contracts through a platform offered jointly by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (nyse: CME - news - people ) and the hedge fund Citadel. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (New York) and LCH.Clearnet Group (London) have announced a merger to create the world's largest clearing house, also providing services for OTC products such as interest-rate swaps and credit default swaps.
These developments augur well for the credit derivatives market and overall financial stability..."
The Dollar Trap Part II: Mutually Assured Financial Destruction
Jesse's Café Américain: The Dollar Trap Part II: Mutually Assured Financial Destruction: "The Dollar Trap Part II: Mutually Assured Financial Destruction
The current structure of the Bretton Woods agreement with the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency is not sustainable unless the rest of the world is willing to accept a form of neo-colonialism.
The developed nations are holding approximately 70% of their reserves in US dollars.
The rest of the world knows it must find an acceptable substitute for the dollar as the reserve currency.
The US does not wish to change the status quo for several reasons.
First, it provides an automatic funding mechanism for incredibly large budget deficits that would collapse without this mechanism as they are now unsustainable..."
The current structure of the Bretton Woods agreement with the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency is not sustainable unless the rest of the world is willing to accept a form of neo-colonialism.
The developed nations are holding approximately 70% of their reserves in US dollars.
The rest of the world knows it must find an acceptable substitute for the dollar as the reserve currency.
The US does not wish to change the status quo for several reasons.
First, it provides an automatic funding mechanism for incredibly large budget deficits that would collapse without this mechanism as they are now unsustainable..."
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Today's Bear and the Crash of 1929
by Doug Short, Ph.D., AAMS, CRPC, AWMA
November 19, 2008
The news is increasingly filled with references to the Crash of 1929and the Great Depression. For the past few months we've been comparing today's bear market with the two other 40% plus declines in the S&P since 1950.
CLICK TO ENLARGE
November 19, 2008
The news is increasingly filled with references to the Crash of 1929and the Great Depression. For the past few months we've been comparing today's bear market with the two other 40% plus declines in the S&P since 1950.
CLICK TO ENLARGE
Financial Downturn ..Good Thing for Your Health
Talk about frugal living is all the rage these days. Of course, Planet Green has been Getting Recession Ready since March, and my husband and I already live this way. But suddenly magazines and daily newspapers are getting into the act and telling readers how to cut back on their spending. I suspect "frugal chic" is a term that you are going to see bandied about more often now.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
The Truth About Green Jobs
The Truth About Green Jobs: "1 ] Green jobs are everywhere!
Does the administrative assistant in the front office of a solar power company count? How about the vanpool driver? Using extremely generous assumptions, energy economist Roger Bezdek calculated that green jobs accounted for about 5 percent of the US workforce in 2006. That's not shabby, but it's a long way from a clean, green economy.....
[ 3 ] Green jobs are primarily in wind and solar, i.e. the West and Southwest.
Consider wind turbines: Each consists of more than 8,000 parts, from ball bearings to fiberglass housing. A 2004 report from the national research firm Renewable Energy Policy Project found more than 16,000 US firms that could take part in that supply chain, most in the populous Southern and Midwestern states that have lost the bulk of the manufacturing jobs.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/11/the-truth-about-green-jobs.html
But renewable energy is only half the strategy. The other half, and the biggest job creator, is increasing efficiency—revamping buildings, cars, and appliances as well as improving transit, waste, and water infrastructure. Take the building sector (please)—it accounts for 39 percent of US carbon emissions. Driving up its energy efficiency may be the fastest and most cost-effective way to reduce emissions; by one estimate, 75 percent of buildings stand to be replaced or substantially rehabbed over the next 25 years. According to architect Edward Mazria, investing about $20 billion in building energy efficiency would save consumers $8.46 billion in energy bills annually (a less than three-year payback), replace 22 coal-fired power plants, reduce annual CO2 emissions by the equivalent of taking almost 16 million cars off the road for a year—and create more than 200,000 new jobs.
..."
Does the administrative assistant in the front office of a solar power company count? How about the vanpool driver? Using extremely generous assumptions, energy economist Roger Bezdek calculated that green jobs accounted for about 5 percent of the US workforce in 2006. That's not shabby, but it's a long way from a clean, green economy.....
[ 3 ] Green jobs are primarily in wind and solar, i.e. the West and Southwest.
Consider wind turbines: Each consists of more than 8,000 parts, from ball bearings to fiberglass housing. A 2004 report from the national research firm Renewable Energy Policy Project found more than 16,000 US firms that could take part in that supply chain, most in the populous Southern and Midwestern states that have lost the bulk of the manufacturing jobs.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/11/the-truth-about-green-jobs.html
But renewable energy is only half the strategy. The other half, and the biggest job creator, is increasing efficiency—revamping buildings, cars, and appliances as well as improving transit, waste, and water infrastructure. Take the building sector (please)—it accounts for 39 percent of US carbon emissions. Driving up its energy efficiency may be the fastest and most cost-effective way to reduce emissions; by one estimate, 75 percent of buildings stand to be replaced or substantially rehabbed over the next 25 years. According to architect Edward Mazria, investing about $20 billion in building energy efficiency would save consumers $8.46 billion in energy bills annually (a less than three-year payback), replace 22 coal-fired power plants, reduce annual CO2 emissions by the equivalent of taking almost 16 million cars off the road for a year—and create more than 200,000 new jobs.
..."
Sanders Wants to Block Bailout Payments
Fox 44 - Burlington and Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports - Fox44.net | Sanders Wants to Block Bailout Payments: "U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is saying he'll introduce legislation to block payment of the second half of the Wall Street rescue package passed in October.
The Vermont independent opposed the $700 billion financial industry bailout when it passed, and now is hoping to limit it to half that amount.
Sanders is worried that the Bush administration is not spending the first half of the bailout package the way Congress intended. He says the money would be better spent creating jobs by rebuilding America's infrastructure and investing in renewable energy, rather than by keeping troubled financial institutions solvent."
Go Bernie! Let's support him!
The Vermont independent opposed the $700 billion financial industry bailout when it passed, and now is hoping to limit it to half that amount.
Sanders is worried that the Bush administration is not spending the first half of the bailout package the way Congress intended. He says the money would be better spent creating jobs by rebuilding America's infrastructure and investing in renewable energy, rather than by keeping troubled financial institutions solvent."
Go Bernie! Let's support him!
30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011
by Paul Farrell
...But the big shocker came from the new Treasury secretary two years before the meltdown: Bloomberg News reports that shortly after leaving Wall Street as Goldman Sachs' CEO, Henry Paulson was at Camp David warning the president and his staff of "over-the-counter derivatives as an example of financial innovation that could, under certain circumstances, blow up in Wall Street's face and affect the whole economy."
Yes, they knew. And still both Paulson, a Wall Street insider, and Greenspan's successor, Ben Bernanke, a Princeton scholar of the Great Depression, stayed trapped in denial and kept happy-talking the public for months after the meltdown began in mid-2007. Get it? While they could have put the brakes on this meltdown years ago, our leaders were prisoners of their distorted, inflexible views of conservative Reaganomics ideology...
...But the big shocker came from the new Treasury secretary two years before the meltdown: Bloomberg News reports that shortly after leaving Wall Street as Goldman Sachs' CEO, Henry Paulson was at Camp David warning the president and his staff of "over-the-counter derivatives as an example of financial innovation that could, under certain circumstances, blow up in Wall Street's face and affect the whole economy."
Yes, they knew. And still both Paulson, a Wall Street insider, and Greenspan's successor, Ben Bernanke, a Princeton scholar of the Great Depression, stayed trapped in denial and kept happy-talking the public for months after the meltdown began in mid-2007. Get it? While they could have put the brakes on this meltdown years ago, our leaders were prisoners of their distorted, inflexible views of conservative Reaganomics ideology...
Monday, November 17, 2008
Latest CDS profile: Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed
Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed: "November 17, 2008
Latest CDS Data: by Paul Kedrosky
I spent time over the weekend pouring over the latest DTCC weekly credit default swap data release. I compared the current release with the prior week in terms of notional, net, and total contracts. The following table summarizes the top dozen entities in terms of increases and decreases in percentage terms in the number of outstanding CDS contracts. (The list is filtered down to those with at least 1,000 pre-existing outstanding contracts.)"
Latest CDS Data: by Paul Kedrosky
I spent time over the weekend pouring over the latest DTCC weekly credit default swap data release. I compared the current release with the prior week in terms of notional, net, and total contracts. The following table summarizes the top dozen entities in terms of increases and decreases in percentage terms in the number of outstanding CDS contracts. (The list is filtered down to those with at least 1,000 pre-existing outstanding contracts.)"
M3 Money Supply is dropping like a stone.!
Reproduction of Charts
WHY would it be dropping when the FED and Treasury are pumping Billions into the money supply via the banks?
1) The banks are still hording these bailout funds rather than loaning it. They are still hiding some many bad assets (hard to value) such as Credit Default Swaps for which they will need more reserves once their junk value is revealed.
2) Some of the bailout funds are being used to pay execs bonuses instead of going to boost economic activity. More trickle down economics. What's changed?
3) Congress and Paulson promised transparency in the use and accounting for the use of the bailout TARP resque funds. Now their is no transparency or accountability or audit trail. In fact, Bloomberg is suing the govt for this information. Congress seems to be sitting on their hands again! Write Obama now!
4) Here are the best two leading indicators of where we are going inspite of all the money, our money, being thrown around.
Money Supply M3
Baltic Dry index
WHY would it be dropping when the FED and Treasury are pumping Billions into the money supply via the banks?
1) The banks are still hording these bailout funds rather than loaning it. They are still hiding some many bad assets (hard to value) such as Credit Default Swaps for which they will need more reserves once their junk value is revealed.
2) Some of the bailout funds are being used to pay execs bonuses instead of going to boost economic activity. More trickle down economics. What's changed?
3) Congress and Paulson promised transparency in the use and accounting for the use of the bailout TARP resque funds. Now their is no transparency or accountability or audit trail. In fact, Bloomberg is suing the govt for this information. Congress seems to be sitting on their hands again! Write Obama now!
4) Here are the best two leading indicators of where we are going inspite of all the money, our money, being thrown around.
Money Supply M3
Baltic Dry index
Best Forecast indicator - $BDI - Baltic Dry Index
$BDI - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com: "$BDI" Baltic Dry Index.
Watch it for the turnaround. Better than other leading indicators.
Watch it for the turnaround. Better than other leading indicators.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now
The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now - Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks: "The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now
Nov 14th, 2008 | By Louis Basenese |
Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…
You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).
Most of the indicators that the market relies on to forecast the future are worthless in this type of environment. The truth is the data coming out of the traditional economic indicators isn’t current. By the time it’s being reported, the information is already weeks or even months old...
4 Reasons to Favor The Baltic Dry Index
Of course, there are other reasons to favor the Baltic Dry Index over other leading indicators, including:
No room for speculation. The index is not tradable, which means the only people booking cargo ships are those with actual cargo to ship. That makes the Baltic Dry Index, as economist Howard Simons put it, “totally devoid of speculative content.”
Not subject to revisions. Unlike almost every other piece of economic data, the Baltic Dry Index is not revised on a monthly or quarterly basis. The price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
An inability to be manipulated. Governments, both here and abroad, love to “massage” economic data, especially inflation figures. Obviously, it’s difficult to base investment decisions off incomplete or “mostly” accurate data. But because of the way the Baltic Dry Index is measured, that’s simply not possible. Again, the price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
Real-time, daily updates. We all know markets shift fast. And in turn, we need indicators able to reflect those sudden movements. At best, we only get weekly updates for other leading indicators. And all are backward looking. The Baltic Dry Index represents the only indicator with “real-time” updates. And such frequency dramatically increases its relevancy and value. .."
Nov 14th, 2008 | By Louis Basenese |
Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…
You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).
Most of the indicators that the market relies on to forecast the future are worthless in this type of environment. The truth is the data coming out of the traditional economic indicators isn’t current. By the time it’s being reported, the information is already weeks or even months old...
4 Reasons to Favor The Baltic Dry Index
Of course, there are other reasons to favor the Baltic Dry Index over other leading indicators, including:
No room for speculation. The index is not tradable, which means the only people booking cargo ships are those with actual cargo to ship. That makes the Baltic Dry Index, as economist Howard Simons put it, “totally devoid of speculative content.”
Not subject to revisions. Unlike almost every other piece of economic data, the Baltic Dry Index is not revised on a monthly or quarterly basis. The price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
An inability to be manipulated. Governments, both here and abroad, love to “massage” economic data, especially inflation figures. Obviously, it’s difficult to base investment decisions off incomplete or “mostly” accurate data. But because of the way the Baltic Dry Index is measured, that’s simply not possible. Again, the price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
Real-time, daily updates. We all know markets shift fast. And in turn, we need indicators able to reflect those sudden movements. At best, we only get weekly updates for other leading indicators. And all are backward looking. The Baltic Dry Index represents the only indicator with “real-time” updates. And such frequency dramatically increases its relevancy and value. .."
Friday, November 14, 2008
China Shift Reserves into Commodities and Gold
Jesse's Café Américain: "China Expected to Shift Reserves into Commodities and Gold
'Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes...'
The Standard - Hong Kong
Gold rush
By Benjamin Scent
Friday, November 14, 2008
The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard."
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Bill Ackman
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Bill Ackman
by CalculatedRisk on 11/13/2008 05:25:00 PM
A half hour converstion with Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management:http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-817708814789126459&hl=en
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Bill Ackman
by CalculatedRisk on 11/13/2008 05:25:00 PM
A half hour converstion with Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management:http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-817708814789126459&hl=en
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Falling International Reserves - a strange case!
by Mike Shedlock www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com - Nov. 13
Inquiring minds are pondering a chart from the Strange Case of Falling International Reserves.
As of August 2008, as you can see from the graph, International Reserves were growing at the explosive annual rate of 26.5%. Suddenly, since August, Reserves have stopped growing.
I’ll leave you with this question: what is the significance of the drastic change in the growth-trend of International Reserves, from explosive growth, to the sudden beginning of a contraction?
Inquiring minds are pondering a chart from the Strange Case of Falling International Reserves.
As of August 2008, as you can see from the graph, International Reserves were growing at the explosive annual rate of 26.5%. Suddenly, since August, Reserves have stopped growing.
I’ll leave you with this question: what is the significance of the drastic change in the growth-trend of International Reserves, from explosive growth, to the sudden beginning of a contraction?
unfunded Social Security mandates
...American workers have been promised benefits from companies, state and local government, as well as the Federal government that are insufficiently funded — meaning the benefits may not be available for retirees, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, one of the world's largest pension fund advisers.
Setting aside the huge issue of unfunded Social Security mandates, nearly 75% of S&P 500 companies still have pension fund obligations. As the market has tumbled this year, so have the value of their assets — by $1 trillion, according to the American Benefits Council.
This isn't just an issue hobbling automakers or steel companies or airlines, and its potential economic impact "scares the heck out" of Garnick...
Setting aside the huge issue of unfunded Social Security mandates, nearly 75% of S&P 500 companies still have pension fund obligations. As the market has tumbled this year, so have the value of their assets — by $1 trillion, according to the American Benefits Council.
This isn't just an issue hobbling automakers or steel companies or airlines, and its potential economic impact "scares the heck out" of Garnick...
Oversight, Transparency! Treasury and FED can't find them in WIKI?
Jesse's Café Américain: "Oversight, Transparency'
Boehner said he is increasingly concerned that the government's actions to add stability to financial markets is moving into areas that were not the stated intention when Congress approved $700 billion for a Treasury-administered program to bail out the financial sector that is being weighed down by the housing crisis.
``During the bipartisan negotiations between Congress and the administration, members of both parties made clear that Congress must have meaningful oversight over the use of taxpayer dollars,'' Boehner said. ``Transparency is even more important now, given that the program appears to have been implemented in some ways that were given little to no discussion as Congress was being urged to pass the rescue plan."
Boehner said he is increasingly concerned that the government's actions to add stability to financial markets is moving into areas that were not the stated intention when Congress approved $700 billion for a Treasury-administered program to bail out the financial sector that is being weighed down by the housing crisis.
``During the bipartisan negotiations between Congress and the administration, members of both parties made clear that Congress must have meaningful oversight over the use of taxpayer dollars,'' Boehner said. ``Transparency is even more important now, given that the program appears to have been implemented in some ways that were given little to no discussion as Congress was being urged to pass the rescue plan."
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
CBC News: Saving Auto Industry from the Brink?
CBC News: Sunday: "With the Big Three automakers bleeding billions of dollars, southern Ontario's economic backbone could be at the breaking point. We ask CAW economist Jim Stanford and American analyst Eric Janszen whether governments should step in to save jobs and communities in a failing industry."
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Debt or Ponzi? | Personal Liberty Digest
Debt or Ponzi? | Personal Liberty Digest: "Again I say that so-called “debt” on everybody’s lips is nothing more than fiat ponzi and it has no more substance than whittenpoof dust. This is cognizant dissidence, which is the concept of holding two opposing thoughts at the same time. This is the irrational state of mind of the American people.
Of course their bailout, inflation and all the rest of it dilutes all the dollars in savings and circulation. It is my view that at present they are after the remaining trillions of dollars that the American people have in savings and retirement accounts. I believe that this is economic war on the American people. Unfortunately, not one in a million will ever figure it out until we become impoverished like the Weimar Republic in 1923. All of this is nothing more than witchcraft and created and concocted in such a way that it operates above the threshold of intelligence of the people.
This translates to government fraud on a worldwide and unbelievable scale."
Of course their bailout, inflation and all the rest of it dilutes all the dollars in savings and circulation. It is my view that at present they are after the remaining trillions of dollars that the American people have in savings and retirement accounts. I believe that this is economic war on the American people. Unfortunately, not one in a million will ever figure it out until we become impoverished like the Weimar Republic in 1923. All of this is nothing more than witchcraft and created and concocted in such a way that it operates above the threshold of intelligence of the people.
This translates to government fraud on a worldwide and unbelievable scale."
Strategies for Financial Survival | Personal Liberty Digest
Strategies for Financial Survival | Personal Liberty Digest: "By Bob Livingston • Jun 23rd, 2008 • Category: Bob Livingston, Personal Liberty Articles, Preserving Wealth
Good judgment does not always accompany a good education or impressive professional experience.Where we Americans go badly wrong is trusting authority under the aura of education and pseudo professionalism. There are many fools under these mantras.
There is really no substitute for taking personal responsibility in every area of our lives, including finance, health and religion. Keep following a leader and you will eventually be in a ditch more like a human grave. We sit on an economic powder keg. Authorities would have us to believe that the system will recover and prosper. There is no system. It is a patched-up paper money monster that has nothing left but confidence. When that falters, she blows!"
This is ultra conservative thinking I can support. Norton
Good judgment does not always accompany a good education or impressive professional experience.Where we Americans go badly wrong is trusting authority under the aura of education and pseudo professionalism. There are many fools under these mantras.
There is really no substitute for taking personal responsibility in every area of our lives, including finance, health and religion. Keep following a leader and you will eventually be in a ditch more like a human grave. We sit on an economic powder keg. Authorities would have us to believe that the system will recover and prosper. There is no system. It is a patched-up paper money monster that has nothing left but confidence. When that falters, she blows!"
This is ultra conservative thinking I can support. Norton
Monday, November 10, 2008
While bailing out, U.S. is digging itself deeper into debt -- baltimoresun.com
Why is the Social Security and Medicare off balance sheet?
While bailing out, U.S. is digging itself deeper into debt -- baltimoresun.com:Haven't we learned anything yet? The most pressing needs for long term security are hidden from view!
"And the official debt is dwarfed by off-balance-sheet liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, which Standard & Poor's calculates at more than $40 trillion in today's dollars over the next 75 years. The whole U.S. economy produced only $14 trillion in goods and services last year.
The bailout adds new pressure on America's debt grade, which has been a perfect 'triple-A' for decades."
Fed Reverses Self on Promises of Transparency, Continues to Stonewall on Collateral, Lending Disclosure
naked capitalism: Fed Reverses Self on Promises of Transparency, Continues to Stonewall on Collateral, Lending Disclosure: "As this Bloomberg article discusses in detail, the Fed has violated promises it made to Congress, both regarding the amount it would lend (the amounts are vastly in excess of anything envisaged) and its commitments about transparency (which have gone completely by the wayside). Bloomberg has petitioned to get certain details disclosed via a Freedom of Information Act filing, which as we discussed in an earlier post, the Fed is fighting."
Friday, November 7, 2008
$6300 per ave. Family for the Wallstreet Bailout Plan
You Too Can Profit From the Government Bailout! | The Consumer Warning Network: "“Making Lemonade: Opportunities for Private Investors.” For $295 dollars you too can learn how to grab some of that taxpayer money for yourself. Added to the $6300 cost per American household for the $700 billion bailout, you’ll have to grab at least $6595 dollars from TARP to break even. Good luck!"
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Credit Default Swap Exposures revealed
Jesse's Café Américain: "Thanks to Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed for putting this together from the DTCC Report."
Electronic Voting Machines - Sep 2008 - Part 2 - "Electronic voting machines are a national security threat."
YouTube - New: Spoonamore - Sep 2008 - Part 2 - "Electronic voting machines are a national security threat.": "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YadsHqxid8I"
HOW STUPID CAN WE BE? WRITE YOUR REPRESENTATIVE NOW!
HOW STUPID CAN WE BE? WRITE YOUR REPRESENTATIVE NOW!
Monday, November 3, 2008
Protect Elections, Prosecute Rove
RoveCyberGate.com
UPDATE: 11/1/08: Late yesterday, a Federal Judge in Akron, Ohio ordered Mike Connell to submit to a deposition hours before the presidential election to talk about possible election manipulations.
The full story is here. Mr. Connell, it’s time to tell the truth and get with the new dynamic, the one called accountability. Yours is the first of many depositions to get to the bottom of this shameful chapter in American democracy. You have a unique opportunity to do the right thing now. The Bush family is not going to protect you or cover for you any longer.
UPDATE: 11/1/08: Late yesterday, a Federal Judge in Akron, Ohio ordered Mike Connell to submit to a deposition hours before the presidential election to talk about possible election manipulations.
The full story is here. Mr. Connell, it’s time to tell the truth and get with the new dynamic, the one called accountability. Yours is the first of many depositions to get to the bottom of this shameful chapter in American democracy. You have a unique opportunity to do the right thing now. The Bush family is not going to protect you or cover for you any longer.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)