Friday, June 27, 2008

It's about to blow - the global banking crisis!

naked capitalism:

From the Telegraph:

Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral....

"Mr Bond said the emerging world is now on the cusp of a serious crisis. 'Inflation is out of control in Asia. Vietnam has already blown up. The policy response is to shoot the messenger, like the developed central banks in the late 1960s and 1970s,' he said.....

David Woo, the bank's currency chief, said the Fed's policy of benign neglect...

Rob McAdie, Barclays' credit strategist, said: "The core issues have not been addressed. We're still in a very large deleveraging cycle and we're seeing losses continue to mount. We think smaller banks will struggle to raise capital. We're very bearish - in the long-term - on high-yield debt. The default rate will reach 8pc to 9pc next year."

He said investors had taken their eye off the slow-motion disaster engulfing the US bond insurers or "monolines". Together these firms guarantee $170bn of structured credit and $1,000bn of US municipal bonds.

The two leaders - MBIA and Ambac - have already been downgraded as the rating agencies belatedly turn stringent. The risk is further downgrades could set off a fresh wave of bank troubles. "The creditworthiness of many US financial institutions will decline in coming months," he said....

The bank warned that engineering and auto firms we're likely to face a crunch as steel and oil costs surge. "Their business models will have to be substantially altered if they are going to survive," said Mr McAdie...."

From Naked Capitalism post:

It's about to blow!


From Bill Fleckenstein's Daily Rap today:
He believed that the equity market was "miles behind what was occurring in the mortgage-backed/credit markets." Though he noted that he'd said it before, he repeated: "It's never been this bad."

And I heard confirmation from a bond shop today that "liquidity is getting worse and worse". Here we go again?

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