Understanding the Second Great Contraction: Percent Off the Previous PeakJames Ross, the University Architect at UNC Wilmington and an avid student of the economy, called my attention to Martin Wolfe's recent essay at the Financial Times explaining that we're not at risk of a double-dip recession because the one that began in late 2007 hasn't ended.
Of course, the National Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER) declared June 2009 as the end date for the last recession, a decision they announced in September of the following year. You can read their rationale here. According to the NBER's analytical method, which focuses on major peaks and troughs as boundaries, the June 2009 end for the last recession makes perfect sense. But if you expect the end of a recession to be a return to some semblance of economic normality, then, to paraphrase the immortal words of Yogi Berra, the last recession "ain't over 'til it's over."
Bill McBride, the economic wizard at Calculated Risk, is a master at graphing data series ..."
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