Sunday, October 24, 2010

Financiers Offer Terms to the Rest of World in the Currency Wars

comments by Jesse's Cross Roads Cafe
Anglo-American financiers to the Rest of World: We've a Gun to Our Heads, Better Surrender.
"To put it crudely, the US wants to inflate the rest of the world, while the latter is trying to deflate the US. The US must win, since it has infinite ammunition: there is no limit to the dollars the Federal Reserve can create. What needs to be discussed is the terms of the world’s surrender: the needed changes in nominal exchange rates and domestic policies around the world."
Destroy the world economy by trashing the global reserve currency? Yes we can.

I hate to make light of this because it does offer a useful vignette of the deployment of opposing lines and basic strategies in the currency war, at least from one perspective. Several years ago I forecast that the Bankers would make the world an 'offer they cannot refuse,' or at least that the Bankers think that they cannot refuse. Hank Paulson made such an offer to the US Congress, and now it appears that the financiers are extending a similar type of offer to the rest of the world.

And quiet flows the Don.

***
Financial Times

Why America is going to win the global currency battle

By Martin Wolf
October 12 2010 22:30
"Naturally, one could imagine an opposite course. Indeed, China objects to the huge US fiscal deficits and unconventional monetary policies. China is also determined to keep inflation down at home and limit the appreciation of its currency. The implication of this policy is clear: adjustments in real exchange rates should occur via falling US domestic prices. China wants to impose a deflationary adjustment on the US, just as Germany is doing to Greece. This is not going to happen. Nor would it be in China’s interest if it did. As a creditor, it would enjoy an increase in the real value of its claims on the US. But US deflation would threaten a world slump.

Prof Blanchard is clearly right: the adjustments ahead are going to be very difficult; and they have also hardly begun. Instead of co-operation on adjustment of exchange rates and the external account, the US is seeking to impose its will, via the printing press. The US is going to win this war, one way or the other: it will either inflate the rest of the world or force their nominal exchange rates up against the dollar. Unfortunately, the impact will also be higgledy piggledy, with the less protected economies (such as Brazil or South Africa) forced to adjust and others, protected by exchange controls (such as China), able to manage the adjustment better...

It would be far better for everybody to seek a co-operative outcome. (Co-operative outomce is code for 'obey our will and give obesiance to the financiers' - Jesse). Maybe the leaders of the group of 20 will even be able to use their “mutual assessment process” to achieve just that. Their November summit in Seoul is the opportunity. Of the need there can be no doubt. Of the will, the doubts are many. In the worst of the crisis, leaders hung together. Now, the Fed is about to hang them all separately....
The theme for the next ten years is self-sufficiency."

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