Thursday, July 3, 2008

we have here is a new paradigm, the old investing strategies simply don't work anymore, because the markets don't behave as they should

A New Paradigm
By Chris Nelder | Energy and Capital | Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008
Want some proof? Here are the top-performing diversified U.S. stock-fund categories, according to MarketWatch:
Category
Q2 Avg. Return YTD Avg. Return
Midcap Growth 5.2%- 8.3%
Small-Cap Growth 4.2- 11.3
Midcap Core 4.1- 6.0
Multicap Growth 2.0- 10.5
Large-Cap Growth 1.8- 10.0
U.S. Diversified 0.6- 9.7

Yes, that's right, the top performing stock funds are down 6-11% on the year. As for the major averages, they're down 12-14% this year....

The fact is, the Fed is whistling past the graveyard. Or sticking their finger in a leaky dike. Or whatever metaphor you like.

While most investors are shaking their heads in confusion and dismay over a recession that just won't go away, it all makes perfect sense to those who really understand the implications of peak oil...

I hold a very simple thesis: Without an ever-growing supply of cheap and plentiful energy, the old investing strategies simply don't work anymore, because the markets don't behave as they should...

In fact, record high oil prices have clearly failed to bring adequate new supply to market. Consequently, oil and commodity prices stubbornly refuse to revert back to the mean, as a technical analysis says they should....The airline sector is going down in flames, with fuel prices destroying the bottom line. (See my article of last month, "Peak Oil and the Rail Revolution - Say Goodbye to Cheap Air Travel.")...

Truckers are trying to strike their way out of losses due to skyrocketing fuel costs, but if they can't pass on the higher cost of their fuel to the buyers of the goods they haul, which is hard to do in a declining economy, then they're going to simply run out of road...

In a CNBC interview on May 29, Matthew Simmons, one of the world's top energy investment bankers and a proponent of the peak oil study, explained his investing strategy. "I have a very significant portfolio that I've built up over the last 25-30 years in energy stocks," he said, "because I think it's the only way that anyone's going to make any money...

But if you want to do really well, then you need to have a stake in some of the choice energy picks we have selected for the $20 Trillion Report.

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