Thursday, December 23, 2010

Government Financial Report 2010 - John Williams

My Blog- KWN: "...The GAO went so far as to run an 'Illustrative Alternative Scenario' (page 130) to the government’s happy Medicare adjustments, with the net effect of showing a net present value of unfunded Medicare liabilities (open group) $12.4 trillion higher than that used in the formal accounting. The alternative assumptions appear more realistic than the politicized data used in getting ACA enacted.

...Broader GAAP-based federal deficits, including the Social Security and Medicare unfunded liabilities, have been in the $4 trillion to $5 trillion range in 2008 and 2009, and 2010’s deficit again likely was near $5 trillion, remaining both uncontainable and unsustainable. The federal government cannot cover such an annual shortfall by raising taxes, as there are not enough untaxed wages and salaries or corporate profits to do so. On the spending side, all government spending, except Social Security and Medicare could be cut, but the broad GAAP results still would be in deficit..

..The GAO went so far as to run an "Illustrative Alternative Scenario" (page 130) to the government’s happy Medicare adjustments, with the net effect of showing a net present value of unfunded Medicare liabilities (open group) $12.4 trillion higher than that used in the formal accounting. The alternative assumptions appear more realistic than the politicized data used in getting ACA enacted.."

Norton's comment: So, that is a long way of saying the US Government is BROKE! So, I you ready to fend for yourself?  Independent power supply. Heat. Telecommunications. Water supply. food inventory.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Telling Trend Reversals: The Dollar and Bonds

Telling Trend Reversals: The Dollar and Bonds: "In last week’s Money and Markets column, I wrote about Bernanke’s quantitative easing policy. The goal of the policy is to create higher stock and housing prices by pushing the dollar and interest rates down.

So how is the Fed’s plan going? Let’s start with the …"
Norton's comment: This is a very telling article with a number of charts to illustrate what is really happening.  QE2 is NOT doing what the FED stated goal is to be.  Supply and demand as it related to the supply of money is operating as one would expect. Too many dollars are chasing investors when China, India, Brazil and other countries that buy us Treasury bonds are suspecting that our FED is driving down the value of our dollar so as to payoff US Govt debt with less valuable dollars.  Countries holding our debt do NOT want their investment devalued; that is, the future purchasing power of their investments in the US Treasuries diminished..

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Big Mac index: Bun fight

Big Mac index: Bun fight | The Economist: "Big Mac index Oct 15th 2010

A WEAK currency, despite its appeal to exporters and politicians, is no free lunch. But it can provide a cheap one. In China a McDonald’s Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijing and Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates. In America the same burger averages $3.71. That makes China’s yuan one of the most undervalued currencies in our Big Mac index, which is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity. This says that a currency’s price should reflect the amount of goods and services it can buy. Since 14.5 yuan can buy as much burger as $3.71, a yuan should be worth $0.26 on the foreign-exchange market...."
Norton's comment:
Understanding the difference in your investment goal between preserving principal and preserving buying power
Recently I asked several investment brokers and investment fund managers about my concerns with the safety of the principal of my mothers portfolio.  She has some major corp. stocks, mutual funds and various municipal, state and federal tax exempt bonds.  I noticed that she had over 50% of the total in stocks or stock mutual funds.  this seems a bit high to me where she is 99 years old.  Their response was unexpected: "..oh, she will be fine.  When the dollar tanks, the stock market will go up.."


I said, " No, you don't understand. Today, let's say I buy a hamburger for $ 1.00.  If we get hyper-inflation, and I go back to buy the same hamburger in five years, I will be paying a lot more like $ 3.00. So the point is, my goal goes beyond preserving her PRINCIPAL!"  


The bonds will do that.  My goal is to preserve her PURCHASING POWER!!!  This is where precious metals, gold , silver and agricultural products come in.  They are expected to rises even as the dollar and the economy tanks.  Supply and demand takes effect. So if she / we have some portion of our investments (5 to 20% guess-timate) in gold / silver and agricultural resources, then our purchasing power of our hard-earned income and retirement will be protected.

Gold Stocks in a Failing Fiat Currency | FINANCIAL SENSE

Gold Stocks in a Failing Fiat Currency | FINANCIAL SENSE:
by David Galland Fri Dec. 17, 2010
"I have been agonizing about getting metal after dumping paper metal I held and was reading the Daily Dispatch looking for investment clues. I was pondering the ratios of thirds that you mentioned in a recent Dispatch and the pursuing of metal stocks when an issue occurred to me that was not mentioned.

On the one hand, you discuss the dollar trap of investors running from one currency to another, away from the dollar and back to it. I fear that the dollar is doomed as are other fiat currencies, and time is getting short. So the question that came to mind is, what happens if one is invested in metal stocks or any vehicle that is denominated in a fiat currency, and that currency goes bust, blotto?...more"

Jesse's Café Américain: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Jesse's Café Américain: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
by Norton
We are expecting a temporary correction; that is, drop in these prices and then it is expected to break through the $ 1400 per oz. for Gold

Friday, December 17, 2010

PMXO - Gold - to-Go ATM Machine

Bullion Vending Machine introduced in America

PMXO - Penny PayDay:   "Mining company, PMX Communities, Inc. (PMXO.OB), through its wholly-owned subsidiary, PMX Gold LLC, has opened the first “GOLD to go™ ATM” in America with the launch of the vending machine in Boca Raton, FL at the prestigious Town Center Mall. The machines are currently operational in twelve locations throughout the world including German, Spain, Italy and Dubai. The famous Emirates Palace Hotel in Abu Dhabi Hotel in Dubai installed one of the machines in the summer of 2010."

Norton's comment: Sign-up for FREE for a gold-backed Savings Account. Now signup is available. No initial deposit is necessary. Also, we are looking for business partners  ... more information HERE>>>

John Williams - Massive Selling of US Currency Lies Ahead

My Blog: "John Williams - Massive Selling of US Currency Lies Ahead

John Williams today was dispatching information regarding gold, silver, M3, nearby massive selling of dollars and inflation. Here is a portion from his commentary, “Despite November 9th’s historic high gold price of $1,421.00 per troy ounce (London afternoon fix) and the multi-decade high silver price of $30.50 per troy ounce (London fix) on December 7th, gold and silver prices have yet to approach their historic high levels, adjusted for inflation.”"

Sunday, December 12, 2010

BOMBSHELL – Whistle Blower Comes Forward With Solid Proof The Price Of Gold And Silver Is Being Manipulated By Major Financial Institutions

BOMBSHELL – Whistle Blower Comes Forward With Solid Proof The Price Of Gold And Silver Is Being Manipulated By Major Financial Institutions: "Once the American people learn how incredibly corrupt the world financial system is, it is going to change everything. The government that we are all trusting to guard the integrity of the financial system is failing to do that job. It turns out that the Commodities Futures Trading Commission has been sitting on solid evidence that the elite banking powers have been openly and blatantly manipulating the price of gold and silver. Even though they were basically handed a 'smoking gun', they have done absolutely nothing with it. But now the information has gone public and the CFTC is red-faced.


Back in November 2009, Andrew Maguire, a former Goldman Sachs silver trader in Goldman's London office, contacted the CFTC's Enforcement Division and reported the illegal manipulation of the silver market by traders at JPMorgan Chase..


Because of Maguire’s warning, the CFTC was able to watch a crime unfold, right in front of their eyes, in real time.
So what did the CFTC do about it?
Nothing.
Absolutely nothing.
Which is extremely alarming, because the size of this fraud absolutely dwarfs the Madoff or Enron scandals.  In fact, this fraud is so gigantic that it is not even worth comparing to any of the other major financial scandals of recent times.
But Maguire did not give up.  He sent several more emails to the CFTC detailing the open manipulation of the gold and silver markets.
The CFTC did not reply....."

The Biggest Election Scandal Since Watergate : Veterans Today

The Biggest Election Scandal Since Watergate : Veterans Today: "The Military Industrial Comples Spends Massively on Elections using Non-Profit Scams
One reason why the U.S. sees ongoing wars, massive military budgets and record arms sales is because the military industrial complex spends massively on elections. This year, corporate spending on elections is worse than ever thanks to the Citizens United decision and political operatives like Karl Rove who have created front groups [non-profit scams] to hide the source of campaign donations. These front groups [non-profit scams]are designed to evade federal election laws and federal tax laws. The violations of law are quite evident...."

As a result of this, our allied organization Prosperity Agenda, took a major step on Thursday.  Voters for Peace via Prosperity Agenda asked the Department of Justice to begin a criminal investigation of [non-profit scams] being used to take unlimited, anonymous donations in an attempt to influence the vote.

New IMF Strategy Document Charts Launch Of “Bancor” Global Currency: Economy / Currency; Highlights “potential resistance” on road from “voluntary multilateral framework” to full blown global currency Steve ...

New IMF Strategy Document Charts Launch Of “Bancor” Global Currency: Economy / Currency; Highlights “potential resistance” on road from “voluntary multilateral framework” to full blown global currency Steve ...: "Steve Watson Prisonplanet.com Wednesday, Aug 4th, 2010


A chart within the document, innocuously titled
"Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability "(PDF link), presents a stepping stone system toward a fully fledged global currency:



A newly published IMF strategy document calls for the implementation of a global currency, called the “bancor”, to stabilise the international monetary system, while acknowledging that only a monumental shift toward acceptance of globalism will make it possible in the short term..."

A golden opportunity for monetary reform! Golden for whom?

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - A golden opportunity for monetary reform: "A golden opportunity for monetary reform
By Robert Skidelsky November 9 2010 22:20 | Last updated: November 9 2010 22:20


Three cheers for Robert Zoellick. Writing in the FT this week, the World Bank president set out an ambitious agenda for the Group of 20 leading economies to “rebalance demand” and “spur growth”. He recognises that the reduction of current account imbalances is a necessary condition for a non-protectionist trading system...

This was addressed by Keynes’s proposal for capital controls (to guard against capital flight) and, more imaginatively, to create a new international reserve asset that he called “bancor” (short for “bank money”), which would replace gold as the ultimate reserve asset of the system. Gold would remain as a reference point for the value of bancor, thus limiting the capacity of the ICB to create credit – which seems similar to Mr Zoellick’s idea. Keynes’s famous description of the gold standard as a “barbarous relic” does not quite capture his opinion of the metal, which he thought would be useful as a constitutional monarch but disastrous as a despot...
"



Norton's comment: It is a golden opportunity for the power brokers, bankers and families associated with the IMF.............not for the 98 plus percent of people in the World that are working for these folks!

How is this Income distribution working for YOU? by Occupation

from visualizingeconomics.com

Economist/Banker: Prepare for the next bank's crisis---By Shan Saeed

Economist/Banker: Prepare for the next bank's crisis---By Shan Saeed: "Investors who bought this mostly AAA rated junk as mortgage-backed securities are not simply going to swallow the losses quietly. These investors –including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO) and BlackRock (BLK) are seeking redress. Under certain circumstances, the terms of their purchase agreements allow them to put back the mortgages to the banks..."

Graphs below also show that idea that no inflation is in play is more BS:

Increases in every day consumer costs by category.

Claim that no inflation is in play courtesy of dshort.com

Move your money now! Weiss independent list of banks in trouble! Notice no one else shows Bank of america.

Bank of America, with its still awful Countrywide and Merrill acquisitions, has the greatest exposure, at over $35 billion. Citigroup somehow has a mere $8B in potential putback losses."

Friday, December 10, 2010

| OpenSecrets- Bank of America lobbying influence, tactics

OpenSecrets Blog | OpenSecrets: "But while being targeted by the government for consumer and corporate power abuses, Bank of America has spent millions of dollars attempting to woo state and federal officials through professional lobbying efforts and campaign contributions, an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics finds. The company even has two corporate political action committees that target the levels of government differently.

What's more, the banking giant has spent $6.52 million to lobby the federal government -- including the Securities and Exchange Commission, which led the fraud investigation -- on a range of financial issues during 2009 and 2010. This year alone, Bank of America has employed 21 professional lobbyists (most of whom previously worked for the government) who lobbied on nearly 70 specific bills and dozens of other federal government issues, federal lobbying documents show.

A number of topics listed in the documents are standard for financial institutions -- and in many ways, Bank of America is out-lobbied by some of its banking competitors........."

Bond Massacre Hits Treasuries


Bond Massacre Hits Treasuries, TIPs, Munis, Mortgages; PIMCO Among Biggest Losers; Is the Bond Bull Finally Over?

The treasury market has slapped Bernanke silly. Yields have soared ever since QE II was finalized in November. Mortgage rates are up a half-percent in a month and Bankrate shows they are about at the same level as a year ago. Treasuries, TIPS, and municipal bond funds have all been hit hard in the past few weeks. Matters took a turn for the worse when President Obama agreed to a tax compromise that will cost close to $900 billion.


With that backdrop, please consider Pimco Total Return Among Biggest Losers as Bond Rally Fizzles
Bill Gross’s Pimco Total Return Fund, the world’s largest mutual fund, was the second-biggest decliner among the largest U.S. bond managers in the past month as clients pulled money for the first time in two years amid a selloff in Treasuries.....

 Yield Curve As of 2010-12-10

Important Bull/Bear Chart Watch Out! - "Investors Intelligence

 King World News - Dec. 09, 2010 Friday

This is an extremely important chart from Investors Intelligence showing 10 years of up to date Bull/Bear surveys.  From their report, “The Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment Survey bull-bear spread is once again moving towards the +40% danger zone. When the spread last broke above 40%, in October 2007, the market collapsed spectacularly.”  The entire write-up is below...."

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Gold/Silver Ratio: Silver Going Higher? | zero hedge

Gold/Silver Ratio: Silver Going Higher? | zero hedge: "Gold/Silver Ratio: Silver Going Higher?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2010 11:58 -0500

Recession Roman Empire

A topic we covered extensively in the past makes a second appearance, this time courtesy of Abigail Doolittle and The Weekly Peak, whose weekly musings focus on the much fabled ratio between the price of gold and silver. Some observations:
  • 323 B.C. – The ratio stood at 12.5 upon the death of Alexander the Great.
  • Roman Empire – The ratio was set at 12.
  • 12th to 17th Century – The ratio was around 12.
  • End of 19th Century – The nearly universal, fixed ratio of 15 came to a close with the end of the bi-metallism era and England’s attempt to demonetize silver and conceivably because the country had little of the precious metal.
  • 1980 – At the time of the last great surge in gold and silver, the ratio stood at 17.
  • 1991 – When silver hit its lows, the ratio peaked at 100.
  • 2003 - 2007 – This part of the bull market in silver caused the ratio to drop to 45 from 80.
  • 2008 – The ratio rose back to 80 on the Great Recession.

Much more in the full report below. Gold/Silver Ratio: Silver Going Higher? (pdf)"


Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Euro collapse ‘possible’

Euro collapse ‘possible’ amid deepening divisions over bail-out ; Ireland Finance  Philip Aldrick,12:03, Tuesday 7 December 2010

"Euro collapse ‘possible’ amid deepening divisions over bail-out
It is feasible that the euro will not survive the current sovereign debt crisis sweeping Europe, one of the Treasury s leading independent forecasters has said. Under questioning from MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Stephen Nickell, a member of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and a former Bank of England rate-setter, said a collapse of the single currency was "a possibility".

Asked more broadly about the sustainability of currency unions, he added: "The general consensus is that sooner or later they fail for one reason or another — but that doesn't mean to say it always happens. His comments came as deep divisions in the eurozone threatened to drive Spain, Portugal and Ireland into more difficulty. Attempting to defy Germany, the euro-zone's powerhouse and the nation that will provide the bulk of any rescue fund, Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders called for the €440bn bail-out fund to be expanded, while Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker and Italian counterpart Giulio Tremonti outlined proposals for a joint European government bond...

UFirst Videos-take control and payoff loans EARLY

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Is the Political Class Economically Incompetent or are they Simply Bought and Paid For?

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Is the Political Class Economically Incompetent or are they Simply Bought and Paid For?: "Inquiring minds are reading an interesting article in Forbes by writer Charles Kadlec regarding the Economic Incompetence of the Political Class.


The sovereign debt crisis now threatening Europe, as well as major American states and cities, discloses the sheer incompetence of a political class that has over-promised, under-delivered and squandered vast amounts of their citizens' wealth


Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, California, Illinois, Los Angeles and Chicago are simply the poster children for what happens when elected officials engage in reckless and irresponsible management of their economies, their banking system or their respective government's public finances.

California's budget deficit has soared to $25 billion, or more than 25% of total spending. And, according to a recent study, the City of Chicago's unfunded pension liabilities total $45 billion, or more than $40,000 per household.
Politicians may not be solely ....."



Norton's comment: This sums up my observation and bodes ill for the next one hundred years including why there could be the second American Revolution.

Is there a peak-gold like there is a peak-oil?

Is there a peak-gold like there is a peak-oil?: "Why does gold rise?
Gold is a 'blue-chip', stable investment. Even more so than real-estate since one can move gold to a different location. Its price goes up when those willing to buy it outnumber those willing to sell it. The main three reasons why buyers seek gold are:
  • Uncertainty due to war
  •  Risk of high inflation
  •  Lack of confidence in the economy and its leadership.
Today, all three conditions are present in the US market. The Federal Reserve has been artificially deflating the US inflation rate but today's real, high inflation, is the leading cause for high gold prices. More dollars buy less gold because the dollar is weak against all major currencies, consequently inflation is high. In addition, liquidity flooding BRIC countries allow investors to invest in gold which they traditionally value.As inflation increases and the dollar depreciates, count on the price of gold to increase again in the coming months."

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Is Silver the Next Gold? - Seeking Alpha

Is Silver the Next Gold? - Seeking Alpha: "With gold hitting another historic high Monday, I thought it might be worth taking a closer look at another precious metal on the move and one that's at a fresh thirty-year trading high: silver....Second, and somewhere between the technical and the fundamental is the gold/silver ratio or the number of silver ounces it takes to buy a single ounce of gold. Specifically, it is very close to hitting a decade-long area of support found around 45/1 and this suggests that silver will trend higher yet.

Currency Wars: China's Gold Imports Soar 500% As the International Banks Pressure Their Markets

The rhyme of history being what it is, the hard money versus soft money wars have not gone away and seem to be heating up.
From Goldcore:

"China's growing importance to the precious metal markets was underlined by the news that Chinese imports have surged by more than 500% due to increased investment demand. Incredibly, China's gold imports were five times higher in the first ten months than in the whole of last year. Imports hit 209 tonnes compared to 45 tonnes for all of 2009, according to the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Trading volume of gold on the exchange in the first 10 months rose 43 percent from a year earlier to 5,014.5 tonnes.

Inflation and Deflation: US Money Supply Figures - We're Not In Kansas Anymore Toto

Jesse's Café Américain: Inflation and Deflation: US Money Supply Figures - We're Not In Kansas Anymore Toto: "04 DECEMBER 2010 Jessies Americain Cafe

Inflation and Deflation: US Money Supply Figures - We're Not In Kansas Anymore Toto

Here are the latest Money Supply Figures from the St. Louis Fed.

I start with the narrowest measure, the Monetary Base and widen out to M2 which is the broadest measure of US money supply currently available, with MZM serving a similar function for the short term."

Thursday, December 2, 2010

What to look for before you buy an ETN

What to look for before you buy an ETN: "Why ETNs are Riskier Than They Look
Ron Rowland | Friday, February 6, 2009 at 7:30 am


Co-editor of Weiss Research’s International ETF Trader
Mike Larson is off today, so he asked me to fill in for him. And one thing that I think Mike and I both agree on is that ETFs, or exchange traded funds, are one of the best things that ever happened for small investors.

You may already know about the advantages they have over conventional mutual funds … liquidity, low costs, transparency, diversification, and more.

What you may not know is that there is a new investment that looks a lot like an ETF but is actually a whole different species. I’m talking about ETNs: exchange traded notes.

On the surface, ETNs share many of the characteristics of ETFs. You can buy and sell them on the stock exchange throughout the day, their performance closely mirrors an index, and they give you access to specialized market niches like commodities and currencies.

However,

There is One Gigantic Difference …
An ETN Is Really a Bond!

That’s why they’re called “notes” rather than “funds.” Yet it usually doesn’t pay interest at a fixed rate, like say a Treasury bond would. Instead your “interest” is the return on a designated index...."

Real Estate and Home Loan Information: Libor Rates Make New Historic Low

Real Estate and Home Loan Information: Libor Rates Make New Historic Low:

"This is This table shows all LIBOR rates are down significantly from a year ago.
Updated 7/25/2009 This week Month ago Year ago
1 Month LIBOR Rate 0.29        0.31            2.46
3 Month LIBOR Rate 0.50        0.61            2.80
6 Month LIBOR Rate 0.96        1.15            3.14
1 Year LIBOR Rate   1.49        1.74            3.26

New historical lows shown in RED


###### LIBOR ###### Prime Fed

1 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr Rate Funds
Rate
Current % 0.29 0.50 0.96 1.49 3.25 0.25
Min % 0.29 0.50 0.96 1.46 3.25 0.25
Max % 6.94 6.85 7.07 5.43 9.5 7.063

See Libor Rates at a Glance for current rates and graphs.

Definition: LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate. It is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates banks in the London wholesale money market (or interbank market) offer to lend unsecured funds to each other. LIBOR is usually slightly higher than the London Interbank Bid Rate (LIBID). LIBID is the rate the same banks are prepared to accept deposits."

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

New phase of debt crisis! Striking NOW! Despite rescues!

New phase of debt crisis! Striking NOW! Despite rescues!The Real Trauma of
The Irish Debt Crisis


Default insurance is the telltale indicator.

And right now, the cost of insuring €10 million of 5-year Irish government bonds against default has skyrocketed — to an extremely high €600,000.

That’s 55 percent more than it cost for the same insurance in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers failure — a time when it seemed the entire world was on the brink of collapse.

It’s 50 percent ..."

This is an urgent read! You must be prepared for what is coming! Do not be caught up in the dust of the next phase of financial calamity!

I have financial, cash flow, investment and savings tools to help you. See my bio at http://www.linkedin.com/in/creativenortonwest