Residential Natural Gas Prices: A Consumer’s Guide

There are two main components to any natural gas bill. There is the cost of transmitting and distributing the natuarl gas and the commodity costs. Keep in mind there is also the sales tax which in Texas would be (8.25%)

Transmission and distribution costs - This involves transporting the gas through gas pipelines from the facility it is produced in to the local gas company and finally from the local gas company to a consumer’s house.

Commodity costs - This is the actual cost of the natural gas not including the transportation or anything else. Find gas’ current price here. NYMEX


The wellhead price also known as the commodity price of natural gas has made up more then 50% of the cost of natural gas. The efficiency of delivery and transportation of gas will further increase that percentage as technology continues to advance in that area. We have seen in the past 5 winters where natural gas at the wellhead has comprised the biggest percentage of the cost. The added demand and reliance upon natural gas will see the natural gas price rise as well. If you look at the power plants in Texas and the trend then you should know that the natural gas commodity is in high demand with almost a 91% correlation with the price of electricity in Texas we see the state that will most likely drive the price higher. Residential Natural Gas is not going to go down dramatically in price until more nuclear power plants are built to alleviate the demand off of natural gas. The resulting high natural gas prices can be attributed to several market factors. Weak natural gas production in the face of increased drilling levels, colder weather over consecutive weeks during the heating season, hurricane production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico, decreased net imports, and record high crude oil prices are the primary factors as to why natural gas prices have reacted as they have. One often missed additional disruption is the Mexico natural gas pipeline sabotage which raised gas prices 15% during the month of September 2007.

Figure 1. Dissection of Natural Gas Prices by Residential Consumers

Heating Season

Mcf = Thousand cubic feet.

Issues That Change Current Natural Gas Prices

There are a number of issues that have prevailed for most of 2007 that have affected the gas price. Depending on the issue, each changes the price upward () or downward () in relation to the pressure on prices. These

Insolvent Financial System Signals Much Higher Gold Price

Dec 26, 2008 - 03:29 AM
by Jim Willie CB
Editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”
Home: Golden Jackass website
"..To begin with, the US so-called ‘Deflation Experience' is not deflation at all. Sure, many investments are losing value fast. Sure, much credit is being burned, with heavy write-downs. But new money is coming into the system from the corrupt bond swaps, historically unprecedented rescues, bailouts, and nationalizations. The $8500 billion in new commitments highlight the inflation side. Also, never confuse the ample supply of crippled assets brought from off balance sheets to actively accounted big bank balance sheets, distorting money supply figures, but just exposing the shell game. The deflation that many analysts describe is actually a systemic liquidation that will be difficult to reverse, a necessary step by producing the critically important inflation. It will come, but with difficulty. The US is not Japan in the 1990s, but something much much worse. The USFed and Dept Treasury, with lackey help from the USCongress, are not pushing on a string. They are rather trying to hold up a man whose skeletal structure is dissolving, while its circulatory system is also dissolving. THIS IS DISINTEGRATION. To argue otherwise seems pure folly and wishful thinking.

DEFINITION OF INSOLVENCY
...
The big banks to date have cornered over 80% to 90% of the official rescues and bailouts. They have also been invited to engage in a Treasury Yield Curve carry trade, wherein they borrow money cheaply at the rate of short-term maturities, then invest for yields at the long-term maturities. Wall Street has managed to hog the rescue bailout trough, while disseminating false messages about how the US Federal Reserve has enabled broad liquidity programs to assist the people. They are doing precisely the opposite. Over $800 billion has been DRAINED from the private banking system via Cash Mgmt Bills by the USFed in order to feed the Wall Street banks responsible for most of the fraudulent bond packages, for coercion of debt ratings agencies, and for commandeered crony regulatory inaction..."

Federal Reserve refuses to tell who is getting $2 Trillion of Taxpayers money

The Federal Reserve refused a request by Bloomberg News to disclose the recipients of more than $2 trillion of emergency loans from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.
Bloomberg filed suit Nov. 7 under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act requesting details about the terms of 11 Fed lending programs, most created during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Track this law suit: Bloomberg LP vs Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 08-CV-9595

Follow the Bailout money: $ 8.5 TRILLION and counting

"Diane Lim Rogers, chief economist with the Concord Coalition, says her biggest fear is not hyperinflation and the social unrest it could unleash. 'I'm more worried about a lot of federal dollars being committed and not having much to show for it. My worst fear is we are leaving our children with a huge debt burden and not much left to pay it back.'"

The federal government committed an additional $800 billion to two new loan programs on Tuesday, bringing its cumulative commitment to financial rescue initiatives to a staggering $8.5 trillion, according to Bloomberg News.
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Net Worth
What investors can learn from Madoff scandal 12.21.08
People older than 70 1/2 will get mild IRA break 12.18.08
Soft landings in home loan crash 12.07.08
Retirement distribution rule changes proposed 12.02.08
More Net Worth »
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End result of federal rescue programs?

Inflation
Recovery
Crippling debt

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That sum represents almost 60 percent of the nation's estimated gross domestic product.

Given the unprecedented size and complexity of these programs and the fact that many have never been tried before, it's impossible to predict how much they will cost taxpayers. The final cost won't be known for many years.

Peter Schiff: Outlook for the Gold Market

Peter Schiff: Outlook for the Gold Market - Seeking Alpha: "The Wall Street Transcript recently interviewed Peter Schiff, President and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc., on his outlook for the gold market. Key excerpts follow:...

Mr. Schiff: Because gold was priced in dollars, it's traded in dollars and so we all look at it as the dollar price, and the fact that gold has not made a new high in dollars during this economic crisis has led some to believe that maybe it's lost its luster, it's not a safe haven. But this rise of the dollar is very suspicious to me, I don't think it's justified. But it's been the unlikely beneficiary of all the problems. You've got the problem centered in the US economy; the epicenter of the financial crisis is in America. The reason that the world is in trouble is mainly because of bad loans made to Americans and it's our economy that I think is a complete facade, a house of cards that has now collapsed, so this dollar rally actually makes no sense.

And especially in light of the monetary policies that we pursued over the course of the last six months, the bailouts, the stimulus, all of the things that are likely to happen with Barack Obama saying that the sky is the limit on budget deficits, we're going to print money until we run out of trees. Everything that we are doing is so negative for the dollar, yet the dollar has managed to rally. So I think temporarily the fundamentals are on hold, but I think once the dollar really resumes its decline, you're going to see gold really shine again not only in terms of the dollar. It will continue to do well against other currencies, but it will do particularly well against the dollar..."

Leading Economic Indicators Point to Worsening Economy

EconomPic Data: Leading Economic Indicators Point to Worsening Economy: "Conference Board:

The leading index continued to fall in November, due mainly to large declines in building permits, stock prices, and initial unemployment claims, which offset the continued positive contributions from real money supply (M2) and the yield spread. Without the very large increases in inflationad justed money supply since September, the leading index would have been significantly weaker. The six-month change in the leading index has continued to fall -- to -2.8 percent (a -5.6 percent annual rate) in the period through November, down from -0.9 percent (a -1.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months."

White House & Housing Crisis: timeline

courtesy of NYT

Price premium on 30 yr.US Bonds $ USB

longbond.jpg (image) Shows demand is so high / yield low, that they they are selling at a historical premium on fac value....
The worst case scenario is if the Dollar, Bond, and Equities start going down together as the world repudiates the US Dollar Reserve Currency and Credit Bubble.

This is not a probable scenario.

The last time it happened was in 1933 in the trough of the Great Depression.

But we may have the opportunity to see something as once-in-a-lifetime and memorable as John Law's Banque Générale and the Mississipi Bubble.

Let's hope the Federal Reserve can reach deeper in its pockets for a better class of tricks than just front running the dollar and the bonds until they fall over.

Certainly anything is possible, but it does appear as though the US Long Bond is hitting a 'high note' of improbable valuation unless the world accepts a single currency dollar regime....30 year treasury bonds
long term dollar index

Shock to system: domestic civil unrest and the US Military

In a column by Steve Watson & Paul Watson at Alex Jones' Infowars.net, "Army 'Strategic Shock' Report Says Troops May Be Needed To Quell U.S. Civil Unrest," we find that that even those who are not ordinarily prone to hyperbole and hysteria are contemplating scenarios that might once have been dismissed as the ravings of lunatics and conspiracy theorists.

"Purposeful domestic resistance" would require military to "rapidly determine the parameters defining the legitimate use of military force inside the United States."

A recent report produced by the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Institute warns that the United States may experience massive civil unrest in the wake of a series of crises which it has termed "strategic shock."

The report, titled Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense Strategy Development, also suggests that the military may have to be used to quell domestic disorder.

"Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security," the report, authored by [Ret.] Lt. Col. Nathan Freir, reads.

"Deliberate employment of weapons of mass destruction or other catastrophic capabilities, unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters are all paths to disruptive domestic shock." it continues.

Still no credibility on Wall St?

Bonuses paid from TARP plan bonuses are about half of the money required to put some health into the US automotive sector

Jesse's Café Américain: "Since a significant portion of the anticipated losses will be coming from writedowns in commercial real estate the projected reports are probably difficult to make with accuracy. The Banks have a great deal of accounting discretion, and it is probably tied to their tax and public relations strategy among other things.

As you may recall, there was quite a fuss when it was reported that Goldman was setting aside $7 billion of its $10 billion in TARP money to be paid out in bonuses this month. To put it into perspective, those bonuses are about half of the money required to put some health into the US automotive sector.

Goldman and Morgan have been paying more attention to the outrage in the public and the Congress since then, but they are still on a heady Masters-of-the-Universe fast track"

New Media - Diet Coke InStyle Series

brought to you by Digital Broadcast Group

brought to you by Digital Broadcast Group
Diet Coke’s newest venture “Style Series presented by Diet Coke” kicks off next Tuesday with exclusive appearances from artists Robin Thicke and Rihanna and designer Cynthia Rowley. The show combines branded entertainment and digital syndication to make a very promising advertising campaign.

Fans can watch the show through several mediums: Times Square billboards, mobile, at DietCoke.com, and through other strategically placed ads on the Web.

The program is a product from two innovative ad agencies: MediaVest and Digital Broadcasting Group. The campaign is described by Adweek’s Brian Morrissey as, an old school concept of sponsored content that attaches the many options of digital distribution.

“We're guaranteeing viewership. They know what they're going to get,” asserts Chris Young—CEO of DBG. Currently the branded entertainment company is looking for footage of live events to create short-form content for those who missed the live performances..."

Five Critical Decisions Leading to Our Financial Crisis: Joe Stiglitz Presents His Analysis

10 December 2008
Five Critical Decisions Leading to Our Financial Crisis: Joe Stiglitz Presents His Analysis
by Jesse at http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
This is a benchmark document, a starting point, for finding our way out of the wilderness.

It validates the points that quite a few economic bloggers have been making for some time, with great effect because of Joe Stiglitz' reputation and accomplishments in his field.

Here is a summation of the Five Major Causes of our financial crisis. As Joe so correctly observes:

"What were the critical decisions that led to the crisis? Mistakes were made at every fork in the road—we had what engineers call a “system failure,” when not a single decision but a cascade of decisions produce a tragic result. Let’s look at five key moments."
Reagan's nomination of Alan Greenspan to replace Paul Volcker as Fed Chairman

The Repeal of Glass-Steagall and the Cult of Self-Regulation

Bush Tax Cuts for Upper Income Individuals, Corporations, and Speculation

Failure to Address Rampant Accounting Fraud Driven by Excessive and Flawed Compensation Models

Providing Enormous Bailouts to the Banks without Engaging Systemic Reform for the Underlying Causes of the Failure

There are other points that might be added, some that are not strictly financial in nature.

1. An international monetary exchange system that facilitates manipulation to create de facto barriers and subsidies in support of industrial trade policies. This creates destabilizing surpluses and deficits which may be the source of the next stage of the financial crisis.

2. The concentration of the ownership of the mainstream media in a handful of corporations has had a chilling effect on the newsrooms and commentators.

3. The lack of Congressional courage in exercising its obligations with regard to the extra-Constitutional excesses of the Executive Office. Certain mechanisms and instruments that facilitate the unilateral exercise of presidential power are tipping the balance of powers.

4. The existing system of funding inordinately expensive political campaigns is a breeding ground for favors and corruption.

The undue influence on prices, particularly global commodity prices, that is exercised by a handful of US banks operating far outside of traditional banking charters. This is a dangerously destabilizing influence on the real world economy and industrial growth and investment. A significant step forward would be the imposition of position limits, greater and more timely transparency for those with more than 10% of any market's open interest, and an uptick rule with stronger enforcement against naked shorting and other forms of short term price manipulation.

EERE Energy Savers: Sealing Air Leaks

EERE Energy Savers: Sealing Air Leaks: "How Does the Air Escape?
Warm air leaking into your home during the summer and out of your home during the winter can waste a lot of your energy dollars. One of the quickest dollar-saving tasks you can do is caulk, seal, and weatherstrip all seams, cracks, and openings to the outside. You can save as much as 10% on your heating and cooling bill by reducing the air leaks in your home....

Air infiltrates into and out of your home through every hole, nook, and cranny. About one-third of this air infiltrates through openings in your ceilings, walls, and floors."

Going Green at Home - insulation

Insulation Fact Sheet: "Why Insulate Your House?
Heating and cooling account for 50 to 70% of the energy used in the average American home. Inadequate insulation and air leakage are leading causes of energy waste in most homes. Insulation:
saves money and our nation's limited energy resources
makes your house more comfortable by helping to maintain a uniform temperature throughout the house, and
makes walls, ceilings, and floors warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer..."


Norton's comment: when considering where you have heat loss in your house, these are the three kinds to consider. Plus, each of these barriers need to located in the same place. from Norton, Certified Maine home energy auditor.

Currencies - Long Term

Currencies: "Main currencies, longer term"
Norton's comment: looks like we are headed for a stronger us dollar for a while as the World recession finds it a relatively safe haven. Deflation will show up also for a while until the Treasury printing presses break down and foreign investors question the backing of the US dollar as fiat currency. It appears that China and Saudi Arabia are quietly beginning to sell off their us dollars from their reserves and increasing their store of gold bullion.

US Energy Use Sources

Introduction: The Historic Role of Energy Efficiency

Energy efficiency has long been a national public policy priority, and has made a substantial contribution to the nation’s energy supply, thereby "lightening the load" on our electricity generation, transmission, and distribution system. Analysis by the Alliance to Save Energy, illustrated in Figure 1 on the next page (Alliance, 1998) reveals that energy efficiency - the energy saved by improvements in energy efficiency implemented between 1973 and 1998 – made energy efficiency the nation’s second largest source of energy (and largest domestic resource) by 1998. This analysis accounted for changes in energy intensity due to structural changes in the economy, such as a decline in energy-intensive industries and the increasing share of GDP derived from services. While steep increases in energy prices were undoubtedly a strong driver for improvements in energy efficiency, much of the improvement was purposeful, policy-driven, and accomplished through targeted research and development and technology deployment programs.

Interest Rates Race to Zero Worldwide

PEG - price/earnings-to-growth ratio

What exactly is PEG, and why is it important?

A: PEG stands for price/earnings-to-growth ratio and refers to a stock’s P/E ratio divided by the company’s projected longterm earnings growth rate. The reason we find it so useful is that it’s a way of seeing how the market is valuing a company’s growth; it is a measure by which you can judge if a stock's P/E and price are reasonable for its growth rate. For this reason, PEG is more significant than the P/E ratio alone, even though investors tend to focus more on P/Es. Typically we seek stocks with PEG ratios below that of the sector (where PEGs are applicable). The key with PEGs, of course, is to make sure that your estimates of growth are on target. The other way to look at PEG ratio is how much the market is paying for the unit of growth. Generally, investors are willing to pay more for a stock that is expected to grow rapidly

Hirsch Report: DOE on Peak Oil 2005

What our government knows by Alternative Energy Association (Robert C. Hackney)

"In 2005, the US Department of Energy published a report titled “Peaking of
World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.”

Known as the Hirsch report, it stated,'The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.'

The Hirsch Report is the scariest 91 pages you will ever read, and it’s not fiction. According to the Hirsch Report, world oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt and revolutionary...."

PDF of Full Report HIRSCH REPORT 2005

Credit Default Swaps on Selected Sovereign Reference Credits (weekly)

Financial Sense Online  Market WrapUp with Michael Panzner 12/04/2008: "In recent months, policymakers around the globe have opened up the monetary and fiscal spigots in an attempt to counteract the credit crunch. Although safe haven buying has helped buoy prices on government bonds in spite of the budding tsunami of future supply, there are signs that investors are growing nervous. Premiums on credit default swaps (a type of derivative providing insurance on creditworthiness) for a wide range of sovereign reference credits, including the U.S., Germany, and the United Kingdom, have shot up, suggesting markets are beginning to price in an eventual -- and widespread -- loss of faith in government-issued debt."

Racing Towards Zero - interest rates worldwide

Racing Towards Zero The Big Picture: "Racing Towards Zero"

Enough Financials Already! Some Fun!

POPWRAP Gossip Entertainment News: "Sorelli sisters"

Recession is 'Official:' Is It Time To Look Forward?

THE FINANCIAL PHILOSOPHER: Recession is 'Official:' Is It Time To Look Forward?: "'You cannot see the mountain near.' ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
Now for some perspective: From the high mark on October 9, 2007, to the recent low mark put in on November 20, 2008, the price movement of the S&P 500 is a 51.93% decline. Of course, we will not attempt to 'call a bottom' or make any predictions here, but let's make a few observations with specific reference to data (and following table) taken from Fidelity's Market Analysis, Research & Education

Dollar index - Long Term with annotations

Long Term View of US Dollar Index

Auditors fault Treasury oversight of bailout funds - Yahoo! News

Auditors fault Treasury oversight of bailout funds - Yahoo! News: "WASHINGTON – The government must toughen its monitoring of the $700 billion financial bailout to ensure that banking institutions limit their top executives' pay and comply with other restrictions, federal auditors said Tuesday in the first comprehensive review of the rescue package.
The Treasury Department has no mechanism in place to track how institutions are using $150 billion in taxpayer money that the government injected into the banking system as of last month, the Government Accountability Office concluded in its report to Congress."

Norton's comment: Surprise, surprise! Put kids in charge of a candy store, and expect them to eat it all and denie it all. Human nature is at work here. But we MUST insist on better. It is our money!

Junk-Bond Market Has Closed the Door

Yields Upward of 20% Make It Too Pricey for Borrowers; Zero Deals Made It in November

Financial Armageddon: "About 50% of U.S. companies have below-investment-grade credit ratings, making the $750 billion junk-bond market a vital source of financing for car makers, airlines, retailers, utilities, restaurant chains and media companies
>The next chart is making things even scarier........ Within the 'junk' label the remaining 'quality' has deterioting fast and furious especially over the past few years.........."

Why Aren't Rating Agencies Moving U.S. Treasuries to Junk Bonds? - Seeking Alpha

Why Aren't Rating Agencies Moving U.S. Treasuries to Junk Bonds? - Seeking Alpha: "In my last article I talked about the folly of rating agencies and US financial system. Considering the junk that most US financial companies hold today without disclosing it openly and that the US government is slowly acquiring that junk by giving them dollars for it, I wonder why rating agencies are not downgrading the US treasury rating to junk. The system of fiat money is very interesting because a government can print as much of it as it wants. And the US government must have installed a few new printing presses recently to provide all the dollars it's showering on failed financial institutions, its war and its public in general....

while the US government borrows it to lavishly spend on wars, to provide $200K houses and $25K cars to people with no means to pay for it and to allow its wealthy people to lower their taxes. And most unfortunately, everyone seems to be ok with it.

But the disastrous consequences of this are being felt all over the globe. I wonder if rating agencies will work again in a reactive manner in this case by taking action only after every global investor realizes the folly of it. Or will they have the courage and wit to inform global investors by acting proactively? Because if fiat money allows the US government to maintain its AAA ratings, then every country in Africa or the third world should also get a AAA rating.

In either case, it's not too far away before global investors, including China and other Gulf countries, realize their mistake..."

PIMCO cancels dividends

Jesse's Café Américain: "Pimco cancels dividend payments for 6 funds
December 01, 2008: 10:03 AM EST

NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Pacific Investment Management Company Inc. on Monday canceled announced dividend payments for six of its funds, saying the weak market has pushed the value of those funds below legal thresholds.

The dividends declared Nov. 3 that were scheduled for payment Monday will not be paid for:
Pimco New York Municipal Income Fund,
Pimco Municipal Income Fund II,
Pimco California Municipal Income Fund II,
Pimco Municipal Income Fund III,
Pimco California Municipal Income Fund III
Pimco New York Municipal Income Fund III.
'Continued severe market dislocations and recent further erosions in the municipal bond market have caused the values of the Funds' portfolio securities to decline,' the company said"...

S & P: a Historial Perspective

Jesse's Café Américain: "Here is a chart with the monthly actuals added to it. The decline has progressed more quickly than anticipated.

If you start reading the blog entries in 2007, one can see how the case for recession was carefully built up based on the indicators, and the probability steadily increased from an estimate of 65% in early December.

Although fundamentals don't work in the short term, in the longer term the markets work, and the fundamentals count, probabilities pay off, and there is a reversion to the means. The trick in trading is not to be trapped by leverage, timeframes and capital risk.

Once again a special thanks to our friend Elvis_Knows for his excellent graphics."

US Treasury 10-yr CDS hits record high | Markets | Bonds News | Reuters

US Treasury 10-yr CDS hits record high | Markets | Bonds News | Reuters: "LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The spread or risk premium on 10-year U.S. Treasury credit default swaps hit a record high on Monday, extending a recent trend as market participants continued to fret about the scale of the government's financial rescue programmes."

Norton's comment: OUCH! Here goes the CREDIT RATING OF US TREASURIES.........then the flight from the US Dollar as fiat currency. Dare I say the Iceland just filed SU bankrupcy to be saved from US obligations.

Municipal Bond Insurance Downgrades: The Next Hit for the Taxpayer | Corrente

Municipal Bond Insurance Downgrades: The Next Hit for the Taxpayer | Corrente: "Municipal Bond Insurance Downgrades: The Next Hit for the Taxpayer

Corporatism Economic Apocalypse Department of All The Damn Gall
Mon, 11/10/2008 - 12:31pm — BDBlue
The economic meltdown isn't limited to the bailout. We're going to be paying for the risks taken by banks and insurance companies in lots of ways. Such as having to pay off 30 year bonds in 10 years. That will cost you. And I do mean you. (The cuts in programs are just starting.)
Here's how it works....

Wait, how can insurance companies that never pay claims be in trouble?

Earlier this decade, they started insuring something besides municipal bonds: subprime-mortgage-backed securities. Enough said.

Like requiring them to be paid by the municipality in 10 years instead of 30. So instead of paying $1 million a year, a school board might have to pay $2 or $3 million a year on the bonds.

Where do you suppose the school is going to get that money?

As the NPR reporter says, "It's as if you bought auto insurance, and then your insurance representative came over to your house, got liquored up, totaled your car, handed you back the keys and said, that'll make your rates go up.""

Record Fed Borrowing- what affect on value of USD?

Fed Borrowing

Ouch!

Wingsuit Flying: Take a five minute break from stress of economics

AlphaTrends

Norton's comment: Perhaps this is a similar thrill to day trading?

Loin embraces friends - Love Prevails!

My Yahoo!: "Lion embraces friends
Even after he returns to the wild, a city-raised lion remembers where he came from. » See their big reunion"

Norton's comment: Sorry, this isnt finance but it is a postive message that applies to life in the NOW so I couldn't help but include it here. Best, Norton

Energy Rhetoric vs Reality - an industry view

by Energy tomorrow.org. "Policymakers are talking a lot about energy and energy policy. What follows are some of the most frequently heard claims and proposals emanating from the campaign trail, along with realities that need to be considered when evaluating these claims...

REALITY: There are many factors affecting the price of gasoline.
More than 80 cents of every dollar spent at the pump goes to the price of crude and taxes. The price of crude oil is set on global markets, not by oil companies, and it accounts for more than 70 cents of every dollar of gasoline price. And the government takes nearly twice as much in taxes (13 cents) as the industry makes in profit (fewer than 8 cents).
While gasoline prices have increased dramatically this year, the price of crude oil has increased by $1.21 per gallon in 2008, compared with the price of gasoline, which is up 80 cents per gallon.
Demand is strong in both mature economies and the developing world, especially in China, India and the Middle East. The market impact of tight supplies has been exacerbated by political instability, resource mismanagement and weather. Finally, the decline in the value of the dollar against other currencies has put American consumers at a disadvantage....more"

CDS Pricing in Increasing Treasury Default Risk

We have noted that Treasuries (and the dollar) are the remaining bubbles, although some doubts are starting to surface on the Treasury front. Paul Amery at Prudent Bear gives a good recap:
The tectonic plates underlying the whole superstructure of debt have started to shift. On the surface nothing remarkable is happening – the 30 year US Treasury bond yield recently hit an all-time low of 3.88%, as investors sought a safe haven during equity market turbulence. Yet while nominal bond yields have declined, the credit risk component of US Treasuries has been on an increasing trend since last year. According to data provided by CMA DataVision, the credit specialists, the 10-year credit default swap spread – a form of insurance contract against issuer default – has risen steadily - from 1.6 basis points (0.016%) in July 2007, to 16 basis points in March 2008, to 30 basis points in September, to over 40 basis points on October 27 – see the chart below for the spread history so far this year. In other words the cost of insuring against a US government default has risen by 25 times in little over a year. Similar trends have been evident in the UK and German government bond markets.

The BIGGEST Bubble- fiat currency

In this interview with The Gold Report, Sprott Resource Corp. President and CEO Kevin Bambrough—who is also Market Strategist for Sprott Asset Management Inc
KB: I think the U.S. dollar becomes almost like the hot potato no one wants to hold. As soon as a country gets dollars, if they don't want to build up the reserves, they move them off. I think we'll start to see that trend. I'm very, very bearish on the U.S. dollar and most Western currencies over the next decade or two. The biggest bubble, which doesn't get spoken of enough, is the fiat currency bubble—the fact that paper currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, are given so much buying power when they're just being run off a printing press. That's ultimately the biggest bubble of all. There will be a day of reckoning for it for sure.
TGR: Do you put the Canadian dollar in that very bearish camp as well?
KB: I think the Canadian dollar is going to be much better off than the U.S. dollar just because it is viewed somewhat as a commodity currency, but it will weaken against gold and all commodities over the long run. If countries like China diversify away from their government bond holdings, increase their holdings of precious metals and realize that there aren't enough precious metals to go around for them to diversify in a really meaningful way; I anticipate them putting more effort into building strategic reserves of other commodities, whether it's increasing their oil reserves or other metals. There's been a lot of talk lately about China stepping up and starting to replace its copper reserves at some point in the next year. I mean, really, why not stockpile these things instead of U.S. government debt and GSE debt? They really have to deal with all the Fannie and Freddie paper; why see value in that, I don't know.

The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set

by Richard W. Rahn Washington Times Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Gerald O'Driscoll, a former senior Fed official and very able economist, recently said it best: "The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set, expressing amazement at how such an event could have happened.
Under a fiat monetary system, which the Fed and almost all other central banks now use, the end of the inflation only comes when the central bank finally decides to end it by restricting money and credit...

Gerald O'Driscoll, a former senior Fed official and very able economist, recently said it best: "The central bank is like an arsonist watching a fire he set, expressing amazement at how such an event could have happened. The Fed created a moral hazard by first, implicitly, then explicitly promising to bail investors out of risky commitments. [Former Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan promised to 'mitigate the fallout' from asset deflation. How does a central bank do that? By reflating asset prices, or, as Greenspan euphemistically put it in his 1999 testimony, 'ease the transition to the next expansion.' "

Before the Fed and big government, previous bank panics usually ended quickly without "bailouts" or "economic stimulus" programs. Given that the Fed, the Treasury and the Congress are obviously confused about what to do in the current situation, history indicates that perhaps the least harmful course of action is for them to do nothing.

Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.

Who Killed the Electric Car? NO BAILOUT FOR GM!

Sony Pictures Classics Presents : Who Killed the Electric Car?

Before GM gets a bailout, they must see this movie during the Congressional hearings and then see their credibility and complicity with Big Oil who do NOT want an electric or hybrid car!

The Only things Congress should be concerned about are:
1) Raising the Standard of Living for All Legal Citizens.
2) Decreasing the Cost of Living by:
a) Regulating all forms of energy (Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Heating fuel, Electricity) Tax rebates from fuel expenses based on receipts
Require mandatory nationalization, if oil industries refuse to set a fair and reasonable profit in correlation with set profit margins of all other fuel producing countries and be required to build enough refineries to prevent the current false shortages these companies have created in order to have a license to do business in the United States.
b) Regulate prices of necessities, housing, utilities, food and water, communications, and clothing.
This would be the greatest benefit to the entire nation as a whole, but I guess Congress doesn't get it.

Please Contact your U.S. Senators and U.S. House Representative Today, so we won't continue to get ripped off by the Big Oil Companies!
Contact your Senators and Congressional Representative and let them know that you demand a release of these patents of technology.
Senate http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
House http://www.house.gov/house/MemberWWW_by_State.shtml
Email Congressional Staff members to make your voice heard http://www.outsourcecongress.org/outsource/congress/schstaffers.html

Bailout Pledges Hit $7.7 Trillion - WHAT? !

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bailout Pledges Hit $7.7 Trillion: "Bloomberg is reporting U.S. Pledges Top $7.7 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit.

The money that’s been pledged is equivalent to $24,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. It’s nine times what the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Congressional Budget Office figures. It could pay off more than half the country’s mortgages.

“It’s unprecedented,” said Bob Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist at Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc. and an economist for the Atlanta Fed for 10 years until January. “The backlash has begun already. Congress is taking a lot of hits from their constituents because they got snookered on the TARP big time. There’s a lot of supposedly smart people who look to be totally incompetent and it’s all going to fall on the taxpayer.”"

Norton: "Scottie beam me up, please!.."

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said he was angry that banks used the money for acquisitions.

“The only purpose for this money is to lend,” said Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat. “It’s not for dividends, it’s not for purchases of new banks, it’s not for bonuses. There better be a showing of increased lending roughly in the amount of the capital infusions” or Congress may not approve the second half of the TARP money.
"

Community Wind Collaborative - overview

Community Wind - Introduction: "Community Wind
Collaborative Overview

Created in 2003 as a multi-million dollar statewide initiative, the Community Wind Collaborative (CWC) is dedicated to helping cities and towns tap into clean, renewable wind power. The CWC offers qualified interested communities technical assistance, wind monitoring equipment, data analysis, and competitively secured resources. Community-based initiatives in which the communities actually own local wind turbines are an excellent alternative to traditional developer-initiated approaches. Currently, more than 40 communities are exploring the potential for developing wind energy with us...

If you or your community is interested in beginning the Collaborative process, needs more information, or have questions about your ongoing work with us, feel free to contact us during the week. Our address is:

Massachusetts Technology Collaborative
75 North Drive
Westborough, MA 01581
For general inquiries about the CWC or to get your community started with us, contact:
Marybeth Campbell
508-870-0312 x238
cwc@masstech.org
"

'Crisis Only Just Beginning': Right About the Crash, Peter Schiff Sees More Pain Ahead:

Technology stock picks & industry news: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance: "There's a popular YouTube clip called 'Peter Schiff Was Right' that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07....

There's a popular YouTube clip called "Peter Schiff Was Right" that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07.

The clips show the wisdom of Schiff's dire forecasts — and, judging from the dismissive reactions, just how far he was outside the mainstream.

Ben Stein publicly apologized to Schiff in a New York Times column, but Laffer refuses to admit defeat, recently telling Bill Maher his economic forecasts have a statute of limitations of just nine months..."

The Skeptical Optimist: An $800 billion freebie, hidden in the national debt

The Skeptical Optimist: An $800 billion freebie, hidden in the national debt: "For-what-it's-worth fact about paying back the debt:
The present value of paying back all of the debt principal is exactly equal to the present value of never paying back one penny of the principal (i.e., of paying interest forever and ever)...

Once a quarter, I like to update this pie chart showing who owns the national debt—mainly so you and I can keep our politicians honest. I'll explain the $800 billion freebie below...
click to enlargePrivate sector owners of the debtThis time I added a breakout of the private sector's ownership: insurance companies, pension funds, and others. Well hidden inside the private sector's portion (until now) is $800 billion of treasury securities that, in essence, is merely a token entry on the asset side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It's the cumulative result of the Fed's so-called money printing operations: the bonds purchased by the Fed from the public, using brand new money the Fed has the authority to create out of "thin air" (...to the unjustified horror of many). Private sector owners of the debtThis time I added a breakout of the private sector's ownership: insurance companies, pension funds, and others. Well hidden inside the private sector's portion (until now) is $800 billion of treasury securities that, in essence, is merely a token entry on the asset side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. It's the cumulative result of the Fed's so-called money printing operations: the bonds purchased by the Fed from the public, using brand new money the Fed has the authority to create out of "thin air" (...to the unjustified horror of many). "

Dry-Bulk Shipping Demand Dries Up (DSX, EGLE, EXM) | November 20, 2008 | By Todd Shriber

Dry-Bulk Shipping Demand Dries Up (DSX, EGLE, EXM) November 20, 2008 By Todd Shriber - Investopedia Advisor: "The end of the commodities bull market has certainly left its fair share of victims in its wake. Shares of basic materials, energy, fertilizer, metals and mining stocks have all been slammed as commodity prices have come crashing back to earth. Dry bulk shipping stocks may have shed the most blood as they are dependent on global demand for coal, iron ore, oil and other commodities to make profit and as demand has dwindled, so has investor appetite for shipping stocks...
Despite the fall in share prices, shipping stocks may be offering investors some value here, especially when considering their almost freakishly high dividend yields. (Be sure to check out The Importance Of Dividends.)

Company 52-week Decline Dividend(Yield)* Dry Bulk Dividends
DryShips(Nasdaq:DRYS) 95% $0.80 (18%)
Eagle Bulk Shipping(Nasdaq:EGLE) 85% $2.00 (47%)
Excel Maritime(NYSE:EXM) 89% $1.60 (32%)
Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE:GNK) 87% $3.85 (52%)

TTM dividend as of noon November 20, 2008

BALTIC DRY INDEX CHART

Prospects for Gold: with New Eyes: ...read more

Jesse's Café Américain:

"'But what creates the most intense surprise
His soul looks out through renovated eyes.'
John Keats, Ode to Apollo"

Time To Lift The Veil - on Credit Default Swaps

Time To Lift The Veil - Forbes.com
In response to these concerns regarding the OTC nature of credit derivatives markets, the Federal Reserve has initiated a move to migrate the clearing of credit default swap contracts through a platform offered jointly by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (nyse: CME - news - people ) and the hedge fund Citadel. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (New York) and LCH.Clearnet Group (London) have announced a merger to create the world's largest clearing house, also providing services for OTC products such as interest-rate swaps and credit default swaps.

These developments augur well for the credit derivatives market and overall financial stability..."

The Dollar Trap Part II: Mutually Assured Financial Destruction

Jesse's Café Américain: The Dollar Trap Part II: Mutually Assured Financial Destruction: "The Dollar Trap Part II: Mutually Assured Financial Destruction


The current structure of the Bretton Woods agreement with the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency is not sustainable unless the rest of the world is willing to accept a form of neo-colonialism.

The developed nations are holding approximately 70% of their reserves in US dollars.

The rest of the world knows it must find an acceptable substitute for the dollar as the reserve currency.

The US does not wish to change the status quo for several reasons.

First, it provides an automatic funding mechanism for incredibly large budget deficits that would collapse without this mechanism as they are now unsustainable..."

Today's Bear and the Crash of 1929

by Doug Short, Ph.D., AAMS, CRPC, AWMA
November 19, 2008
The news is increasingly filled with references to the Crash of 1929and the Great Depression. For the past few months we've been comparing today's bear market with the two other 40% plus declines in the S&P since 1950.
CLICK TO ENLARGE

Financial Downturn ..Good Thing for Your Health

Talk about frugal living is all the rage these days. Of course, Planet Green has been Getting Recession Ready since March, and my husband and I already live this way. But suddenly magazines and daily newspapers are getting into the act and telling readers how to cut back on their spending. I suspect "frugal chic" is a term that you are going to see bandied about more often now.

The Truth About Green Jobs

The Truth About Green Jobs: "1 ] Green jobs are everywhere!
Does the administrative assistant in the front office of a solar power company count? How about the vanpool driver? Using extremely generous assumptions, energy economist Roger Bezdek calculated that green jobs accounted for about 5 percent of the US workforce in 2006. That's not shabby, but it's a long way from a clean, green economy.....

[ 3 ] Green jobs are primarily in wind and solar, i.e. the West and Southwest.

Consider wind turbines: Each consists of more than 8,000 parts, from ball bearings to fiberglass housing. A 2004 report from the national research firm Renewable Energy Policy Project found more than 16,000 US firms that could take part in that supply chain, most in the populous Southern and Midwestern states that have lost the bulk of the manufacturing jobs.

http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/11/the-truth-about-green-jobs.html
But renewable energy is only half the strategy. The other half, and the biggest job creator, is increasing efficiency—revamping buildings, cars, and appliances as well as improving transit, waste, and water infrastructure. Take the building sector (please)—it accounts for 39 percent of US carbon emissions. Driving up its energy efficiency may be the fastest and most cost-effective way to reduce emissions; by one estimate, 75 percent of buildings stand to be replaced or substantially rehabbed over the next 25 years. According to architect Edward Mazria, investing about $20 billion in building energy efficiency would save consumers $8.46 billion in energy bills annually (a less than three-year payback), replace 22 coal-fired power plants, reduce annual CO2 emissions by the equivalent of taking almost 16 million cars off the road for a year—and create more than 200,000 new jobs.
..."

Sanders Wants to Block Bailout Payments

Fox 44 - Burlington and Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports - Fox44.net | Sanders Wants to Block Bailout Payments: "U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is saying he'll introduce legislation to block payment of the second half of the Wall Street rescue package passed in October.
The Vermont independent opposed the $700 billion financial industry bailout when it passed, and now is hoping to limit it to half that amount.
Sanders is worried that the Bush administration is not spending the first half of the bailout package the way Congress intended. He says the money would be better spent creating jobs by rebuilding America's infrastructure and investing in renewable energy, rather than by keeping troubled financial institutions solvent."

Go Bernie! Let's support him!

30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011

by Paul Farrell
...But the big shocker came from the new Treasury secretary two years before the meltdown: Bloomberg News reports that shortly after leaving Wall Street as Goldman Sachs' CEO, Henry Paulson was at Camp David warning the president and his staff of "over-the-counter derivatives as an example of financial innovation that could, under certain circumstances, blow up in Wall Street's face and affect the whole economy."
Yes, they knew. And still both Paulson, a Wall Street insider, and Greenspan's successor, Ben Bernanke, a Princeton scholar of the Great Depression, stayed trapped in denial and kept happy-talking the public for months after the meltdown began in mid-2007. Get it? While they could have put the brakes on this meltdown years ago, our leaders were prisoners of their distorted, inflexible views of conservative Reaganomics ideology...

Latest CDS profile: Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed

Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed: "November 17, 2008
Latest CDS Data: by Paul Kedrosky
I spent time over the weekend pouring over the latest DTCC weekly credit default swap data release. I compared the current release with the prior week in terms of notional, net, and total contracts. The following table summarizes the top dozen entities in terms of increases and decreases in percentage terms in the number of outstanding CDS contracts. (The list is filtered down to those with at least 1,000 pre-existing outstanding contracts.)"

M3 Money Supply is dropping like a stone.!

Reproduction of Charts
WHY would it be dropping when the FED and Treasury are pumping Billions into the money supply via the banks?

1) The banks are still hording these bailout funds rather than loaning it. They are still hiding some many bad assets (hard to value) such as Credit Default Swaps for which they will need more reserves once their junk value is revealed.

2) Some of the bailout funds are being used to pay execs bonuses instead of going to boost economic activity. More trickle down economics. What's changed?

3) Congress and Paulson promised transparency in the use and accounting for the use of the bailout TARP resque funds. Now their is no transparency or accountability or audit trail. In fact, Bloomberg is suing the govt for this information. Congress seems to be sitting on their hands again! Write Obama now!

4) Here are the best two leading indicators of where we are going inspite of all the money, our money, being thrown around.
Money Supply M3
Baltic Dry index

Best Forecast indicator - $BDI - Baltic Dry Index

$BDI - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com: "$BDI" Baltic Dry Index.

Watch it for the turnaround. Better than other leading indicators.

The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now

The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now - Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks: "The Baltic Dry Index: The Only Economic Indicator Worth Tracking Right Now
Nov 14th, 2008 | By Louis Basenese |
Forget unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Personal Incomes…
You can even ignore the ever-popular gross domestic product (GDP).
Most of the indicators that the market relies on to forecast the future are worthless in this type of environment. The truth is the data coming out of the traditional economic indicators isn’t current. By the time it’s being reported, the information is already weeks or even months old...

4 Reasons to Favor The Baltic Dry Index

Of course, there are other reasons to favor the Baltic Dry Index over other leading indicators, including:

No room for speculation. The index is not tradable, which means the only people booking cargo ships are those with actual cargo to ship. That makes the Baltic Dry Index, as economist Howard Simons put it, “totally devoid of speculative content.”
Not subject to revisions. Unlike almost every other piece of economic data, the Baltic Dry Index is not revised on a monthly or quarterly basis. The price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
An inability to be manipulated. Governments, both here and abroad, love to “massage” economic data, especially inflation figures. Obviously, it’s difficult to base investment decisions off incomplete or “mostly” accurate data. But because of the way the Baltic Dry Index is measured, that’s simply not possible. Again, the price is the price. And it’s completely reliable.
Real-time, daily updates. We all know markets shift fast. And in turn, we need indicators able to reflect those sudden movements. At best, we only get weekly updates for other leading indicators. And all are backward looking. The Baltic Dry Index represents the only indicator with “real-time” updates. And such frequency dramatically increases its relevancy and value. .."

China Shift Reserves into Commodities and Gold

Jesse's Café Américain: "China Expected to Shift Reserves into Commodities and Gold

'Beijing's reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes...'

The Standard - Hong Kong
Gold rush
By Benjamin Scent
Friday, November 14, 2008

The mainland is seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The Standard."

Charlie Rose: A conversation with Bill Ackman

Thursday, November 13, 2008
Charlie Rose: A conversation with Bill Ackman
by CalculatedRisk on 11/13/2008 05:25:00 PM
A half hour converstion with Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management:http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-817708814789126459&hl=en

Falling International Reserves - a strange case!

by Mike Shedlock www.globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com - Nov. 13
Inquiring minds are pondering a chart from the Strange Case of Falling International Reserves.

As of August 2008, as you can see from the graph, International Reserves were growing at the explosive annual rate of 26.5%. Suddenly, since August, Reserves have stopped growing.

I’ll leave you with this question: what is the significance of the drastic change in the growth-trend of International Reserves, from explosive growth, to the sudden beginning of a contraction?

unfunded Social Security mandates

...American workers have been promised benefits from companies, state and local government, as well as the Federal government that are insufficiently funded — meaning the benefits may not be available for retirees, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, one of the world's largest pension fund advisers.

Setting aside the huge issue of unfunded Social Security mandates, nearly 75% of S&P 500 companies still have pension fund obligations. As the market has tumbled this year, so have the value of their assets — by $1 trillion, according to the American Benefits Council.

This isn't just an issue hobbling automakers or steel companies or airlines, and its potential economic impact "scares the heck out" of Garnick...

In The Know: Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole? | The Onion

In The Know: Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole? | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

Let's get serious :) by Norton

SPX-Chart: Ouch!

SP.png (image)

Oversight, Transparency! Treasury and FED can't find them in WIKI?

Jesse's Café Américain: "Oversight, Transparency'

Boehner said he is increasingly concerned that the government's actions to add stability to financial markets is moving into areas that were not the stated intention when Congress approved $700 billion for a Treasury-administered program to bail out the financial sector that is being weighed down by the housing crisis.

``During the bipartisan negotiations between Congress and the administration, members of both parties made clear that Congress must have meaningful oversight over the use of taxpayer dollars,'' Boehner said. ``Transparency is even more important now, given that the program appears to have been implemented in some ways that were given little to no discussion as Congress was being urged to pass the rescue plan."

CBC News: Saving Auto Industry from the Brink?

CBC News: Sunday: "With the Big Three automakers bleeding billions of dollars, southern Ontario's economic backbone could be at the breaking point. We ask CAW economist Jim Stanford and American analyst Eric Janszen whether governments should step in to save jobs and communities in a failing industry."

Debt or Ponzi? | Personal Liberty Digest

Debt or Ponzi? | Personal Liberty Digest: "Again I say that so-called “debt” on everybody’s lips is nothing more than fiat ponzi and it has no more substance than whittenpoof dust. This is cognizant dissidence, which is the concept of holding two opposing thoughts at the same time. This is the irrational state of mind of the American people.
Of course their bailout, inflation and all the rest of it dilutes all the dollars in savings and circulation. It is my view that at present they are after the remaining trillions of dollars that the American people have in savings and retirement accounts. I believe that this is economic war on the American people. Unfortunately, not one in a million will ever figure it out until we become impoverished like the Weimar Republic in 1923. All of this is nothing more than witchcraft and created and concocted in such a way that it operates above the threshold of intelligence of the people.
This translates to government fraud on a worldwide and unbelievable scale."

Strategies for Financial Survival | Personal Liberty Digest

Strategies for Financial Survival | Personal Liberty Digest: "By Bob Livingston • Jun 23rd, 2008 • Category: Bob Livingston, Personal Liberty Articles, Preserving Wealth

Good judgment does not always accompany a good education or impressive professional experience.Where we Americans go badly wrong is trusting authority under the aura of education and pseudo professionalism. There are many fools under these mantras.
There is really no substitute for taking personal responsibility in every area of our lives, including finance, health and religion. Keep following a leader and you will eventually be in a ditch more like a human grave. We sit on an economic powder keg. Authorities would have us to believe that the system will recover and prosper. There is no system. It is a patched-up paper money monster that has nothing left but confidence. When that falters, she blows!"

This is ultra conservative thinking I can support. Norton

While bailing out, U.S. is digging itself deeper into debt -- baltimoresun.com

Why is the Social Security and Medicare off balance sheet?

While bailing out, U.S. is digging itself deeper into debt -- baltimoresun.com:
Haven't we learned anything yet? The most pressing needs for long term security are hidden from view!
"And the official debt is dwarfed by off-balance-sheet liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, which Standard & Poor's calculates at more than $40 trillion in today's dollars over the next 75 years. The whole U.S. economy produced only $14 trillion in goods and services last year.

The bailout adds new pressure on America's debt grade, which has been a perfect 'triple-A' for decades."

Fed Reverses Self on Promises of Transparency, Continues to Stonewall on Collateral, Lending Disclosure

naked capitalism: Fed Reverses Self on Promises of Transparency, Continues to Stonewall on Collateral, Lending Disclosure: "As this Bloomberg article discusses in detail, the Fed has violated promises it made to Congress, both regarding the amount it would lend (the amounts are vastly in excess of anything envisaged) and its commitments about transparency (which have gone completely by the wayside). Bloomberg has petitioned to get certain details disclosed via a Freedom of Information Act filing, which as we discussed in an earlier post, the Fed is fighting."

$6300 per ave. Family for the Wallstreet Bailout Plan

You Too Can Profit From the Government Bailout! | The Consumer Warning Network: "“Making Lemonade: Opportunities for Private Investors.” For $295 dollars you too can learn how to grab some of that taxpayer money for yourself. Added to the $6300 cost per American household for the $700 billion bailout, you’ll have to grab at least $6595 dollars from TARP to break even. Good luck!"

H.R. 5351: Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax Act of 2008

Credit Default Swap Exposures revealed

Jesse's Café Américain: "Thanks to Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed for putting this together from the DTCC Report."

Electronic Voting Machines - Sep 2008 - Part 2 - "Electronic voting machines are a national security threat."

YouTube - New: Spoonamore - Sep 2008 - Part 2 - "Electronic voting machines are a national security threat.": "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YadsHqxid8I"

HOW STUPID CAN WE BE? WRITE YOUR REPRESENTATIVE NOW!

Protect Elections, Prosecute Rove

RoveCyberGate.com

UPDATE: 11/1/08: Late yesterday, a Federal Judge in Akron, Ohio ordered Mike Connell to submit to a deposition hours before the presidential election to talk about possible election manipulations.

The full story is here. Mr. Connell, it’s time to tell the truth and get with the new dynamic, the one called accountability. Yours is the first of many depositions to get to the bottom of this shameful chapter in American democracy. You have a unique opportunity to do the right thing now. The Bush family is not going to protect you or cover for you any longer.

Wall Street's 'Disaster Capitalism for Dummies'

PAUL B. FARRELL
Wall Street's 'Disaster Capitalism for Dummies'
14 reasons Main Street loses big while Wall Street sabotages democracy

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, we're dummies. You. Me. All 300 million of us. Clueless. We should be ashamed. We're obsessed about the slogans and rituals of "democracy," distracted by the campaign, polls, debates, rhetoric, half-truths and outright lies. McCain? Obama? Sorry to pop your bubble folks, but it no longer matters who's president.
Why? The real "game changer" already happened. Democracy has been replaced by Wall Street's new "disaster capitalism." That's the big game-changer historians will remember about 2008, masterminded by Wall Street's ultimate "Trojan Horse," Hank Paulson. Imagine: Greed, arrogance and incompetence create a massive bubble, cost trillions, and still Wall Street comes out smelling like roses, richer and more powerful!

Forget Nuclear

By Amory B. Lovins, Imran Sheikh, and Alex Markevich
Correction Appended
Nuclear power, we’re told, is a vibrant industry that’s dramatically reviving because it’s proven, necessary, competitive, reliable, safe, secure, widely used, increasingly popular, and carbon-free—a perfect replacement for carbon-spewing coal power. New nuclear plants thus sound vital for climate protection, energy security, and powering a growing economy.
There’s a catch, though: the private capitalmarket isn’t investing in new nuclear plants, and without financing, capitalist utilities aren’t buying. The few purchases, nearly all in Asia, are all made by central planners with a draw on the public purse. In the United States, even government subsidies approaching or exceeding new nuclear power’s total cost have failed to entice Wall Street.

Treasury Only Money Mkt Funds-Making sure your money is safe and available

Treasury-Only Money Market Funds
Fund Name
Toll-Free No.
Web Address
ABN AMRO Treas MMF/Common Cl
(800) 992-8151
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AllianceBernstein Treasury Reserves
(800) 251-0539
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American Century Capital Presv Fund
(800) 345-2021
www.americancentury.com
American Performance US Treas
(800) 762-7085
www.apfunds.com
BB&T US Treas MMF/Trust Shrs
(800) 228-1872
www.bbtfunds.com
BBH US Treasury MMF
(800) 625-5759
www.bbh.com
BNY Hamilton Treas MF/Hamltn Classic
(800) 426-9363
www.bnyhamiltonfunds.com
CitiFunds Premium US Treas Resvs
(800) 846-5200
www.citibank.com
CitiFunds US Treasury Reserves
(800) 846-5200
www.citibank.com
DWS US Treasury Money Fund
(800) 621-1048
https://www.dws-scudder.com
Dreyfus 100% US Treasury MMF
(888) 782-6620
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Dreyfus US Treas Reserves/ Cl R
(888) 782-6620
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Evergreen Treasury MMF/Cl A
(800) 343-2898
evergreeninvestments.com
Fidelity US Treasury MMF
(800) 343-3548
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Fifth Third US Treas MMF
(800) 282-5706
https://www.53.com
First Amer Treas Oblig/Cl D - Corpt
(800) 677-FUND
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Gabelli US Treasury MMF
(800) 422-3554
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Capital One US Treasury MMF
(800) 999-0426
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Huntington US Treas MMF/Trust
(800) 253-0412
www.huntingtonfunds.com
JPMorgan 100% US Treas Sec. MMF
(800) 480-4111
www.jpmorganfunds.com
Reserve Fund/US Treas Fund
(800) 637-1700
www.reservefunds.com
RMK Select Treasury MMF
(877) 757-7424
www.regions.com
Schwab US Treasury Money Fund
(866) 232-9890
www.schwab.com
SEI Liquid Asset Tr/Treas Secs/Cl A
(800) 342-5734
www.seic.com
Sentinel US Treasury MMF
(800) 282-3863
www.sentinelfunds.com
T. Rowe Price US Treasury Money Fund
(800) 541-6066
www.troweprice.com
US Treasury Money Fund of America
(800) 421-0180
www.americanfunds.com
US Treasury Securities Cash Fund
(800) 873-8637
www.usfunds.com
Vanguard Admiral Treasury MMF
(800) 662-7447
www.vanguard.com
Vanguard Treasury MMF
(800) 662-7447
www.vanguard.com
Weiss Treasury Only MMF
(800) 242-8092
www.tommf.com
Wells Fargo 100% Treas MMF
(800) 222-8222
www.wellsfargo.com
Wells Fargo Treas Plus MMF/Class A
(800) 222-8222
www.wellsfargo.com

courtesy of Martin Weiss of www.moneyandmarkets.com

There will be no new refineries

Crude Oil Price Forecast: "There will be no new refineries by Giuseppe Marconi - 2008/07/23

Oil companies won't be building more refineries, because there won't be enough oil left to refine by the time new refineries could pay for themselves.
There hasn't been a new refinery built in the US since 1976. In 1982, there were 301 operable refineries in the U.S and they produced about 17.9 million barrels of oil per day. Today there are only 149 refineries, and they're producing 17.4 million barrels. This increase in efficiency is impressive but not a miracle. As with everything these outputs are carefully calculated to optimize profitability. Let me explain.
Truth be told, new refineries require tremendous financial commitments which take anywhere from 15 to 25 years to amortize. With record oil prices it would make perfect sense to invest in a few refineries today, except... for the lack of oil to be refined 20 years from now.
Trends have predicted that peak oil production, where the production of oil starts to decline, will be reached around 2007-2010. After that, there will be less and less oil to refine no matter where drillers look. In this context, building expensive new refineries does not make a lot of sense as existing ones will be sufficient to process whatever little oil is left. So forget about new refineries, except for a few in the northern midwest to process the heavy oil from Canada."

How This Bear Market Compares - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com

How This Bear Market Compares - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com

The Becker-Posner Blog: The Financial Crisis: Why Were Warnings Ignored?--Posner

A Solvency crisis requires Capital NOT buying of JUNK INVESTMENTS AT TAXPAYER EXPENSE!

The Becker-Posner Blog: The Financial Crisis: Why Were Warnings Ignored?--Posner: "The crisis appears to be one of solvency rather than (or perhaps along with) one of liquidity; banks, along with insurers of bonds and other securities, are undercapitalized and so, as I suggested last week, require a capital infusion rather than just a purchase of frozen assets.
All of which merely underscores the enormous cloud of uncertainty that has enveloped the crisis and left economists struggling to understand the causes, magnitude, future course, and cures of what is shaping up as the biggest economic bust since the Great Depression of 1929 to 1933. Last week's stock market crash may also reflect doubts about the government's competence to deal effectively with the crisis. There is a sense that its reluctance to take an equity stake in the banks reflects a doctrinaire hostility to public ownership."

The derivatives in your portfolio.

The derivatives in your portfolio. If some of your savings are in a mutual fund, you’re probably an investor in derivatives. Many bond funds, including the nine most widely held funds, use derivatives both to protect against losses and to increase returns, because these swaps can appreciate in value when the prospects for a company and the overall economy improve. Funds aren’t required to disclose derivatives holdings, although those that make them a major part of their strategy typically do so. To see if your fund holds derivatives, check its prospectus and the listing of holdings contained in Securities and Exchange Commission form NQ. Those forms can be accessed at Sec.gov. If you’re still unsure about your fund’s holdings and don’t want to take the chance, financial advisors say, don’t hesitate to switch to an ultra-safe government bond fund. “Don’t be complacent,” says financial advisor Lawrence Glazer. “If you are uncomfortable with something, don’t be afraid to make a change.”

Robbing taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion does not change the equation

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Cancerous Activity of the Fed and Treasury: "Instead of attacking the cancer (the Fed itself), Bernanke is Pushing on a String In Academic Wonderland.

The problem is not a failure to lend, the main problem is there simply is no pool of real savings to lend. Furthermore, given rampant overcapacity and rising unemployment, there is no reason to lend even if the funding was available.

Robbing taxpayers to the tune of $700 billion does not change the equation."

Dear Wall Street: We're Watching You

Dear Wall Street: We're Watching You: "we're not at all pleased that you nearly managed to ruin capitalism for the rest of us.
And we have folks in our midst who are capable of reading financial statements. Remember those big fat bonuses you got last year for turning toxic paper into AAA-rated inverse IO Strips which you dumped on some benighted bank somewhere (who really ought to have known better)? If your bonuses come within an order of magnitude of where they were last year, I'm pretty sure there will, in fact, be bloodthirsty mobs.
By the time they're done, Wall Street will look like it has been hit with a wholly unlikely combination of calamities including hurricanes, staph infections, choking, golf ball-sized hail, dropsy, carpal tunnel syndrome, homeowners' association meetings, and Mongol invasion. It's the kind of violent force of nature you're pretty sure you'd rather have pointing away from you.
Congress knows it, too. They would like nothing more than an excuse to frogmarch a few of you down to Washington for any perceived inability on your part to get That Which We Are Coming From.
The gigantic paydays of the past aren't coming back anytime soon. Truth be told, you were never worth that kind of money anyway. Sorry, Wall Street. Your Masters of the Universe privileges have been revoked. Please stand by; your new assignments will arrive shortly...."

Norton's comment: ditto!